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Will Public Storage (PSA) Surprise Earnings Estimates in Q1? - Analyst Blog

Public Storage PSA is slated to report first-quarter 2015 results on Apr 30, after the market closes.

This storage real estate investment trust (“REIT”) reported in-line results in the prior quarter and has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in 2 of the trailing 4 quarters. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter has remained unchanged at $1.95 per share over the last 7 days.

Is the company poised for a winning quarter? Let’s see how things are shaping up prior to this announcement.

Factors to Consider

The ‘Public Storage’ brand is the most recognized and established name in the self-storage industry with presence in all major U.S. metropolitan markets as well as the European markets. Amid a modest supply, we expect the company to experience higher same store revenues, backed by a rise in realized annual rent per occupied square foot and increased occupancy levels. Moreover, the company is expected to see an increase in revenues from non-Same Store Facilities, led by acquisition of several self-storage facilities.

However, in Public Storage’s European business, though its pricing strategy helped enhance occupancy levels, realized annual rent per occupied square foot moved south. Given the first-quarter economic environment, we do not expect any robust uplift in this unit’s performance.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Public Storage will beat earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. This is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP:  Both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at $1.95 per share. Hence, the difference is 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: Public Storage has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). This, when combined with an Earnings ESP of 0.00%, makes surprise predictions difficult.

Notably, we caution against stocks with Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions momentum.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some stocks in the REIT industry that have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. AHH, with a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of +5.88%. It is scheduled to report results on Apr 30.

Chesapeake Lodging Trust CHSP, with a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of +4.17%. It is scheduled to report results on Apr 30.

Cousins Properties Incorporated CUZ, with a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +5.00%. It is scheduled to report results on May 6.
 


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PUBLIC STORAGE (PSA): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
COUSIN PROP INC (CUZ): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
CHESAPEAKE LODG (CHSP): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
ARMADA HOFFLER (AHH): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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Zacks Investment Research