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Posthaste: More than 80% of Canadians fear recession by the end of the year

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recession-fear-gs0928

Good morning!

More than 80 per cent of Canadians are worried the country will fall into a recession before the end of year — and they are already bracing for it.

Nearly eight in 10 adults are making changes to their lifestyle because of these recession fears, according to BMO’s Real Financial Progress Index, out this morning.

The survey found that Canadians are adjusting their spending habits as the cost of living rises and uncertainty about the future grows. More than a third are delaying big purchases, 30 per cent are paying down debt and 27 per cent are cutting back on holiday spending.

There has been a lot of talk about recessions lately, but forecasts regarding Canada’s economic outlook are hard to pin down.

Stephen Poloz, the former governor of the Bank of Canada, recently said at a gathering in Banff, Alt. that he believes there remains a chance to achieve a “soft landing.”

On a darker note, highly regarded economist Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the 2008 downturn, said he sees a “long and ugly” recession in the United States and globally starting at the end of 2022 and possibly lasting through 2023.

Canadians are also anxious about inflation and their overall financial well-being, the poll found.

Three quarters (75 per cent) said their concerns about inflation have increased over the past three months and more than 75 per cent say inflation, particularly the rising cost of food and gas, is threatening their financial progress.

Canada’s inflation rate cooled to seven per cent in August from 7.6 per cent in July after hitting a 40-year high in June.

However, the cost of groceries is still climbing, up 10.8 per cent from the year before.

Compared with the same time last year, 34 per cent of Canadian adults (down four points) said they felt “confident” they are making financial headway.

On a city by city basis, financial confidence in Vancouver dropped 10 points with only 14 per cent of survey respondents reporting they felt financially secure. Meanwhile, in Toronto, confidence levels fell five points to 37 per cent. In Montreal, the reading remained unchanged at 43 per cent.

The good news was that 72 per cent of Canadians believe they have adequate emergency savings compared with the last quarter at 67 per cent and last year at 68 per cent.

“Fears of a recession could become self-fulfilling, so Canadian households need to be prepared, especially if interest rates continue to rise to tame inflation,” said Sal Guatieri, BMO senior economist.

The survey was conducted by BMO and Ipsos from July 27 to Aug. 29.

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FLYING HIGHER Upstart commercial carrier Flair Airlines Ltd. says it is planning to expand its fleet to 27 aircraft in a bid to grow operations by 50 per cent by next summer. Flair said its expanded service would focus on key domestic routes and would make it the country’s third-largest airline by seats flown and second-largest operator in some cities, including Montreal. The expansion announcement comes several months after the airline was cleared to continue flying domestically following scrutiny by the Canadian Transportation Agency, the country’s aviation regulator, over concerns Flair’s ownership was not sufficiently Canadian. — Denise Paglinawan, Financial Post. Photo by Photo by Larry Wong/Postmedia

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  • Staff from the New Brunswick department of finance and treasury board will hold a technical briefing regarding the government’s public accounts for the 2021-2022 fiscal year.

  • Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, co-spokesperson for Quebec solidaire, will present the economic aspects of his political party’s electoral platform. The speech will be delivered in French and will be followed by a discussion moderated by Michel Leblanc, chief executive of the Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal

  • Francis Drouin, the parliamentary secretary to the minister of agriculture and agri-food, on behalf of Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault, will announce initiatives to reduce food loss and waste

  • Anita Anand, minister of national defence; Sean Fraser, minister of immigration, refugees and citizenship; Joyce Murray, minister of fisheries, oceans and the Canadian Coast Guard; Gudie Hutchings, minister of rural economic development; and Francis Drouin, parliamentary secretary to the minister of agriculture and agri-food, will hold a media availability regarding hurricane Fiona

  • The parliamentary budget officer will post a new report entitled “House Price Assessment — Update” on the website at pbo-dpb.ca. This report provides an update of the PBO’s assessment of house prices relative to a household’s capacity to borrow and pay for the purchase of a house in selected Canadian cities

  • The parliamentary budget officer will post a new legislative costing note entitled “Temporary enhancement to the Goods and Services Tax/Harmonized Sales Tax credit” on the website at pbo-dpb.ca

  • RIV Capital Inc. holds its annual general meeting of shareholders

  • The Surface Transportation Board will hold a three-day public hearing on the proposed merger between Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. and Kansas City Southern in Washington, D.C.

  • Day two of the Bloomberg Canadian Finance Conference, a virtual two-day event designed to provide a broad a view of the Canadian financial and business landscape.

  • Brookfield Asset Management will hold an investor day in Toronto

  • Canadian Federation of Independent Business releases its latest Business Barometer

  • Today’s data: Canadian GDP, survey of employment, payroll and hours; U.S. GDP, initial jobless claims

  • Notable earnings: Nike Inc., Bed Bath & Beyond Inc.

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A report by Re/Max Canada forecasts the national average home sale price will fall 2.2 per cent in the final months of the year.

The network of real estate brokers and agents says the moderation in the market for the September-to-December period comes amid rising interest rates, record inflation and broader global and economic uncertainties.

Mortgage rates have risen sharply this year, raising the cost of borrowing for potential buyers.

Re/Max Canada president Christopher Alexander says many markets are experiencing softer sales given recent interest rate hikes, providing some reprieve from the unprecedented demand and unsustainable price increases across Canada through 2021 and in early 2022.

Read the full story here.

 

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Canadians already know that owning a car is a significant expense, but many would-be owners don’t factor in additional costs when making their purchase. The pandemic put even more cars on the road, with a 6.5 per cent increase between 2020 and 2021, according to Statistics Canada. Our content partner MoneyWise explores the true cost of owning a car and how to get it under control. 

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Today’s Posthaste was written by Gigi Suhanic (@gsuhanic), with additional reporting from The Canadian Press, Thomson Reuters and Bloomberg.

Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at posthaste@postmedia.com, or hit reply to send us a note.

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