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New poll shows Valérie Plante, Denis Coderre in tight race to become next Montreal mayor

·2 min read
Valérie Plante and Denis Coderre, seen here during at a debate last month, are in a tight race to become the next mayor of Montreal. (Ivanoh Demers/Radio-Canada - image credit)
Valérie Plante and Denis Coderre, seen here during at a debate last month, are in a tight race to become the next mayor of Montreal. (Ivanoh Demers/Radio-Canada - image credit)

Valérie Plante and Denis Coderre are in a near deadlock in the race to become mayor of Montreal, a new poll suggests.

The poll, conducted by CROP for Radio-Canada, shows Coderre of Ensemble Montréal at 26 per cent and Plante of Projet Montréal at 25 per cent among respondents.

Another 27 per cent said they still hadn't made up their minds, with less than three weeks remaining in the municipal campaign.

"It is really difficult to know who will win, because they are neck and neck," said Alain Giguère, the president of the polling firm.

The poll was conducted among 1,043 Montreal residents, both online and by phone, between Oct. 7 and Oct. 16. There is no margin of error given that the poll was conducted through a non-randomized sample.

For comparative purposes, a probability sample of 1,000 respondents would have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Balarama Holness, the leader of Mouvement Montréal, was the choice among five per cent of respondents, while Luc Ménard of Montréal 2021 was the choice among four per cent.

Jérôme Labbé/Radio-Canada
Jérôme Labbé/Radio-Canada

"We thought there would be a third person to wedge between [Coderre and Plante] but the fight is too polarized to allow for someone else to step in right now," Giguère said, adding that there is still time for the less popular candidates to make up ground.

The vote is set for Nov. 6 and 7. The only English debate in the campaign will be held next week, on Thursday, Oct. 28.

Both Plante and Coderre are vying for a second term as mayor of Montreal. Plante is the incumbent, while Coderre served as mayor from 2013 to 2017.

Public security, housing seen as priorities

Public security and housing were the top issues among respondents, while mobility, which includes both public transit and road congestion, ranked third.

Giguère said a big challenge for all the candidates will be to get out the vote.

Municipal elections tend to have a low turnout — in 2017, only 43 per cent of eligible voters cast a ballot, while 62 per cent voted in last month's federal election.

Giguère said voter fatigue may be a factor in the high number of undecided people this late in the campaign.

"If the older citizens vote more for Coderre and they vote more, it could really be advantageous for Coderre," he said. "The challenge for Plante from now until the election will be to get the younger citizens to vote. It should be her number one objective."

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