Urban Outfitters, Inc. (NASDAQ:URBN), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the NASDAQGS. As a stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Urban Outfitters’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.
What is Urban Outfitters worth?
The share price seems sensible at the moment according to my price multiple model, where I compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 6.79x is currently trading slightly above its industry peers’ ratio of 6.34x, which means if you buy Urban Outfitters today, you’d be paying a relatively sensible price for it. And if you believe that Urban Outfitters should be trading at this level in the long run, then there should only be a fairly immaterial downside vs other industry peers. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Urban Outfitters’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.
What does the future of Urban Outfitters look like?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. Though in the case of Urban Outfitters, it is expected to deliver a negative earnings growth of -4.4%, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? Currently, URBN appears to be trading around industry price multiples, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock beneficial for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on URBN, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on URBN for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. This means there’s less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help crystallize your views on URBN should the price fluctuate below the industry PE ratio.
So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Urban Outfitters at this point in time. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign that you should run your eye over to get a better picture of Urban Outfitters.
If you are no longer interested in Urban Outfitters, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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