North Carolina and the nation will have a lot to learn from Virginia’s election | Opinion

The countdown has started to next November’s national election, but North Carolinians need not wait to get a sense of what issues and voting trends are likely to matter in 2024.

Virginia is holding elections for its state legislature on Tuesday. The turnout and results could be particularly relevant for North Carolina.

The Virginia vote will show whether new state abortion laws are a decisive issue, whether parents’ influence over school policies is still motivating voters and how strongly Black voters will turn out in a neighboring state a year before it could be decisive in North Carolina.

Virginia Democrats are pressing the abortion issue. Virginia allows abortions up to 26 weeks, but Republican Gov. Glen Youngkin, who is not on the ballot, is proposing a 15-week ban should Republicans gain full control of the legislature. Currently, the legislature is split, with Democrats holding a 22-18 Senate majority and Republicans controlling the House 22-18.

In North Carolina, the Republican-controlled General Assembly this year passed a ban on abortions after 12 weeks, a restriction also likely to be a prominent factor in North Carolina’s state races.

Bob Holsworth, an analyst of Virginia politics and dean of the Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University , said Virginia Democrats are emphasizing the abortion issue.

“Every Democratic campaign is putting abortion on the ballot,” he said. “Republicans are trying to mute that with Youngkin saying the ban will only be 15 weeks with exceptions. But Democrats say a ban is a ban.”

Stephen Farnsworth, a professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington in Fredericksburg, Va., said Virginia’s results will offer a guide nationally on how to tap or defuse anger over new abortion restrictions.

“The stakes are doubly high as whichever party prevails will use the Virginia elections as the national template for talking about abortion next year,” he said.

The Virginia vote will also test the durability of parents’ anger over pandemic-related school closures and school instructions regarding race in the form of critical race theory (CRT). Youngkin rode a backlash on school issues to win his race for governor in 2021. North Carolina Republicans also catered to the issue, passing a “Parents’ Bill of Rights.”

Holsworth thinks that the role of parents being frustrated with school curriculum has been exaggerated as a factor in Youngkin’s election. He said the vote was more about parents being “in a foul mood” after more than a year of working around closed schools. “I don’t think CRT mattered much,” he said.

Finally, the Virginia vote could hint at how key Democratic constituencies – young voters and Black voters – will turn out.

Generally, young voter turnout has increased in recent elections, but Holsworth said President Joe Biden is not igniting political engagement among younger voters.

Meanwhile, turnout among Black voters may increase over 2021.

Former Virginia Gov. Doug Wilder, a Democrat who made history when in 1990 he was the nation’s first elected Black governor, said Black turnout was lackluster in 2021 because of the Democratic candidate, former Gov. Terry McAuliffe.

“Race was involved in that election, too,” he said.

Wilder, who pointedly did not endorse McAuliffe, said the former governor’s attempt to return to office cut off Black candidates who were considering or seeking the job. This year, he said, Black voters may be more motivated.

“Many did not turn out for McAuliffe,” Wilder said, “but there has been a restructuring and reinvigorating of that vote.”

In legislative elections, North Carolina is far away from its bluer northern neighbor. North Carolina’s districts are heavily gerrymandered while Virginia’s were recently redrawn in a much fairer fashion. But the strength of key issues and patterns affecting Virginia’s vote may signal whether the obstacles presented by gerrymandering can be at least partially overcome in North Carolina.

Associate opinion editor Ned Barnett can be reached at 919-404-7583, or nbarnett@ news observer.com