Yahoo Finance NFL's March Madness, inflation and Iran: What to watch next week
While most sports fans will be focusing on the NCAA basketball tournament next week, America’s most-popular game may steal some headlines as well.
That’s because the National Football League owners are meeting in Phoenix, and they’re planning to consider an expansion of the playoffs from 12 to 14 teams. Owners and players like the idea, because it would both boost TV and ticket revenue and lead to a higher salary cap.
But playoffs are not the only topic to be discussed, according to Yahoo Finance Editor in Chief Andy Serwer.
“A lot of rule changes on the docket, mostly about instant replay,” he points out. “But the Patriots want to look at the point-after kick. They want to move it back from the two yard line to the 15.”
And that suggestion makes Serwer suspicious of the motivation of the Pats and their sometimes-notorious, but always-cerebral, head coach.
“This is Bill Belichick,” he says. “What is he doing? What is he thinking?”
Yahoo Finance Senior Columnist Michael Santoli has an idea-- he believes Belichick figures he can outwit his peers
“You want to add more variability into whether it’s going to be an automatic point or not,” he notes. “That would leave room-- I'm sure in his mind-- to exert some kind of skill or advantage in his decision-making.”
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And while Belichick and the Pats were embroiled in controversy over under-inflated footballs in the playoffs, Serwer thinks the owners will steer clear of making light of the flap.
“I don’t think people will joke with him about that,” Serwer says. “Bill is not much of a jokey guy.”
And while Santoli likes sports, his focus next week will be on a different kind of inflation-- the economic kind-- as the government releases the Consumer Price Index and GDP Price Index.
“The reason it matters now is the Federal Reserve has kind of turned everyone’s attention on inflation,” he explains. “They’ve kind of said the labor market looks fine, unemployment is down, that’s no longer going to be the trigger for when we change rates. We want to get inflation up.”
Santoli notes the Fed is hardly alone in worrying about prices not rising.
“Interestingly, every central bank in the world-- and they won’t say this-- is trying to import inflation into their economy,” he argues. “They’re doing it in Europe by way of a cheaper Euro. Here we just want to try to keep the dollar from getting too strong.”
And Santoli feels this upcoming inflation data will go a long way towards telling us when Janet Yellen and company will finally have “lift off.”
“If we get another really soft inflation number or a couple of them next week, it’s really going to solidify the idea that the Fed is going to wait,” he says. “It’s going to be late rather than early.”
Deflation, not inflation, has been the story in the oil patch (OIL) since the middle of last year. And Yahoo Finance’s Akiko Fujita believes prices could continue to fall if talks next week between the U.S. and Iran over that country’s nuclear program produce a deal.
“If there’s an agreement there, that means phasing out of sanctions,” she notes. “That could mean Iranian oil getting into the market. We’re already dealing with an oil glut. Do we need more oil?”
And while Santoli agrees more Iranian oil will mean even lower prices, it will take some time before the effects of any agreement are felt.
“There’s no doubt about it if you get that marginal supply,” he says. “But probably isn’t going to be like Cuba that as soon as we make the announcement every business rushes in.”
