Will Nepal's new coalition government tip the scales of India-China rivalry?

Nepal will continue its delicate balancing act between India and China, according to observers, after political manoeuvrings saw a new government coalition formed and a new prime minister sworn in this week.

The changes bring a parliamentary shift away from the previous communist-dominated rule, after the Communist Party of Nepal - Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) left its alliance with the Communist Party of Nepal -Maoist to form a coalition instead with the centrist, India-leaning Nepali Congress - previously the largest opposition party.

As the new coalition now holds the balance of power, the move meant a change of leader. So Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli of the (CPN-UML) took office on Monday - the fourth time he has served in the position - in place of Pushpa Kamal Dahal, head of the Maoists.

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For Nepal's neighbours, this means a shift from a government that was pro-Beijing to one that holds a mixture of allegiances between Beijing and New Delhi.

However, observers say that shift is unlikely to fundamentally change the status quo, as Kathmandu has economic and security dependencies on both Asian powerhouses.

According to Professor Lin Minwang, deputy director of the Centre for South Asian Studies at Shanghai's Fudan University, Nepal's foreign policy is one of "pragmatism".

"In fact, no matter who becomes Nepal's prime minister, Kathmandu's policy towards China and India is very unlikely to change," Lin said.

"Nepalese diplomacy in the past has always been a balance between China and India, which is one of its basic lines. There might be slight differences between India-leaning or China-leaning in different governments, but they would definitely not offend the other one just because they are more friendly to one country."

He added that Nepal's constantly shifting political landscape, with its frequent leadership changes, also made it difficult to nurture any significant policy changes.

"This round of political change in Nepal is quite normal. Nepal hasn't seen a full-term government for a long time," he said. "Currently, Nepalese politicians have become less concerned with promoting their ideologies and more concerned over their party's interests."

In the past 16 years, Nepal has seen 14 such power shifts. Oli has been prime minister four times in 10 years; Dahal was prime minister three times.

Dr Amit Ranjan, a research fellow with the National University of Singapore's Institute of South Asian Studies, said that while Nepal could not afford to cross swords with either country, its pro-China and pro-India governance would be "interesting to watch".

"[The Nepali Congress] is considered to be pro-India and Oli is considered to be pro-China. So it will be interesting to see how they are moving," Ranjan said.

The landlocked South Asian country has long been considered by India to be part of its sphere of influence. India borders Nepal on three sides and Kathmandu is heavily dependent on Delhi in terms of trade and energy supply.

India was also a key player in helping to end the Nepalese Civil War, which ran from 1996 to 2006 after Dahal's Maoists attempted to overthrow the Nepalese monarchy. It was Delhi that helped to strike a peace deal that saw the country successfully integrate communist parties into its political system.

Ranjan said that, historically, Nepal had been more dependent on India, with long-held close ties that China could not compete with.

But when Oli first became prime minister in 2015, he angered Delhi over a new constitution that split the country into seven states, resulting in protests by the Madhesi group, mostly of Indian origin, who said they were not getting enough territory. As a result, India imposed an economic blockade on Nepal, stopping medicines and other supplies getting into the country.

Oli is known as a friend of China and also expressed Nepal's willingness to cooperate with Beijing under the Belt and Road Initiative, a global infrastructure project that Delhi has been critical of.

While Nepal joined the initiative in 2017, no belt and road projects have been started as Kathmandu has yet to sign the implementation agreement with Beijing. The possibility of Oli signing the plan is Delhi's main worry, according to The Times of India.

But Ranjan doubted that Oli would make any aggressive moves, given his new alliance with the India-leaning Nepali Congress.

"This is an unnatural alliance, as the two parties are completely different. They're polar opposites. They are not ideologically or politically aligned; they have fought against each other. So it's very difficult to manage," he said.

Under the former government and the China-leaning Dahal, there were significant moves to align Nepal with China, with both Dahal and his foreign minister visiting Beijing.

According to Ranjan, while there was no problem with such actions under the previous alliance of two communist parties sharing the same ideologies, under the new coalition with the Nepali Congress, those days are now over.

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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