Natural gas markets continue to be relatively flat, as we hang around the $3.00 level. I think at this point, the market looks very likely to make an explosive move soon, but I also believe that the directionality is probably to the upside, albeit for short-term. The 20 day EMA is close to the $3.32 level, and of course there is a gap above that still needs to be filled. Because of this, I expect a move towards the 20 day EMA, but so far we have not been able to make that move. Once we do, I think at that point looking for signs of exhaustion would be the way to go. At that point you can sell and pick up a little bit of real estate on the weight lower.
NATGAS Video 11.01.19
There is the possibility that we just break down from here, but I don’t like that trait as we are so overextended to the downside. If we get that move, then we should go to the $2.75 level, perhaps even the $2.50 level. At this point, I think that this is a one-way situation: you sell short-term rallies that show signs of exhaustion near the $3.30 level. I have no interest in shorting here, the risk to reward ratio is rather ugly if you do get a lower move. I also believe that there is resistance all the way to the $3.50 level, which is important also. Overall, I have no interest in buying this market because there is no fundamental reason to think that we will slice through supply that quickly.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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