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Mister Car Wash (NYSE:MCW) Reports Q2 In Line With Expectations

MCW Cover Image
Mister Car Wash (NYSE:MCW) Reports Q2 In Line With Expectations

Conveyorized car wash service company Mister Car Wash (NYSE:MCW) reported results in line with analysts' expectations in Q2 CY2024, with revenue up 7.7% year on year to $255 million. The company's outlook for the full year was also close to analysts' estimates with revenue guided to $1.00 billion at the midpoint. It made a non-GAAP profit of $0.11 per share, improving from its profit of $0.09 per share in the same quarter last year.

Is now the time to buy Mister Car Wash? Find out in our full research report.

Mister Car Wash (MCW) Q2 CY2024 Highlights:

  • Revenue: $255 million vs analyst estimates of $255.4 million (small miss)

  • EPS (non-GAAP): $0.11 vs analyst estimates of $0.09 (22.6% beat)

  • The company reconfirmed its revenue guidance for the full year of $1.00 billion at the midpoint

  • EPS (non-GAAP) Guidance for the full year is $0.32 at the midpoint, missing analysts' estimates by 1.4%

  • Gross Margin (GAAP): 32.5%, down from 32.9% in the same quarter last year

  • Free Cash Flow was -$44.21 million compared to -$23.85 million in the previous quarter

  • Same-Store Sales rose 2.4% year on year (0.3% in the same quarter last year)

  • Market Capitalization: $2.45 billion

“We delivered record revenue and adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter. Our subscription business continued to prove its resilience, and the strength of our new Titanium offering drove a healthy increase in revenue per member,” said John Lai, Chairman and CEO of Mister Car Wash.

Formerly known as Hotshine Holdings, Mister Car Wash (NYSE:MCW) offers car washes across the United States through its conveyorized service.

Specialized Consumer Services

Some consumer discretionary companies don’t fall neatly into a category because their products or services are unique. Although their offerings may be niche, these companies have often found more efficient or technology-enabled ways of doing or selling something that has existed for a while. Technology can be a double-edged sword, though, as it may lower the barriers to entry for new competitors and allow them to do serve customers better.

Sales Growth

A company’s long-term performance can give signals about its business quality. Even a bad business can shine for one or two quarters, but a top-tier one tends to grow for years. Regrettably, Mister Car Wash's sales grew at a weak 9.9% compounded annual growth rate over the last five years. This shows it failed to expand in any major way and is a rough starting point for our analysis.

Mister Car Wash Total Revenue
Mister Car Wash Total Revenue

We at StockStory place the most emphasis on long-term growth, but within consumer discretionary, a stretched historical view may miss a company riding a successful new product or emerging trend. Mister Car Wash's recent history shows its demand slowed as its annualized revenue growth of 7.4% over the last two years is below its five-year trend.

Mister Car Wash also reports same-store sales, which show how much revenue its established locations generate. Over the last two years, Mister Car Wash's same-store sales averaged 1.4% year-on-year growth. Because this number is lower than its revenue growth, we can see the opening of new locations is boosting the company's top-line performance.

Mister Car Wash Year-On-Year Same-Store Sales Growth
Mister Car Wash Year-On-Year Same-Store Sales Growth

This quarter, Mister Car Wash grew its revenue by 7.7% year on year, and its $255 million of revenue was in line with Wall Street's estimates. Looking ahead, Wall Street expects sales to grow 9.1% over the next 12 months, an acceleration from this quarter.

Today’s young investors likely haven’t read the timeless lessons in Gorilla Game: Picking Winners In High Technology because it was written more than 20 years ago when Microsoft and Apple were first establishing their supremacy. But if we apply the same principles, then enterprise software stocks leveraging their own generative AI capabilities may well be the Gorillas of the future. So, in that spirit, we are excited to present our Special Free Report on a profitable, fast-growing enterprise software stock that is already riding the automation wave and looking to catch the generative AI next.

Cash Is King

If you've followed StockStory for a while, you know we emphasize free cash flow. Why, you ask? We believe that in the end, cash is king, and you can't use accounting profits to pay the bills.

Over the last two years, Mister Car Wash's demanding reinvestments to stay relevant have drained its resources. Its free cash flow margin was among the worst in the consumer discretionary sector, averaging negative 11.4%. This is a stark contrast from its operating margin, and the investments (working capital, capital expenditures) are the primary culprit.

Mister Car Wash Free Cash Flow Margin
Mister Car Wash Free Cash Flow Margin

Mister Car Wash burned through $44.21 million of cash in Q2, equivalent to a negative 17.3% margin. The company's cash burn increased meaningfully year on year while its cash conversion fell 14.9 percentage points. This relationship shows Mister Car Wash's management team spent more cash this quarter but was less efficient at generating sales with that cash.

Key Takeaways from Mister Car Wash's Q2 Results

We were impressed by how significantly Mister Car Wash blew past analysts' EPS expectations this quarter. On the other hand, its full-year earnings forecast was underwhelming. The outlook could drag down shares. The stock remained flat at $7.60 immediately after reporting.

So should you invest in Mister Car Wash right now? When making that decision, it's important to consider its valuation, business qualities, as well as what has happened in the latest quarter. We cover that in our actionable full research report which you can read here, it's free.