Yahoo Finance Marathon (MRO) Q1 Earnings on Deck: Here's How It Will Fare
Marathon Oil Corporation MRO is set to release first-quarter results on May 1. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is a profit of 53 cents per share on revenues of $1.6 billion.
Let’s delve into the factors that might have influenced the independent oil and gas producer’s performance in the March quarter. But it’s worth taking a look at MRO’s previous-quarter results first.
Highlights of Q4 Earnings & Surprise History
In the last reported quarter, the Houston, TX-based upstream player beat the consensus mark on strong domestic oil and gas production. MRO had reported adjusted earnings per share of 69 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 62 cents. Revenues of $1.7 billion generated by the firm also came in 2% above the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
Marathon Oil beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the last four quarters, resulting in an earnings surprise of 13%, on average. This is depicted in the graph below:
Marathon Oil Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Marathon Oil Corporation price-eps-surprise | Marathon Oil Corporation Quote
Trend in Estimate Revision
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first-quarter bottom line has been revised 1.9% downward in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 20.9% drop year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues, meanwhile, suggests a 6.1% increase from the year-ago period.
Factors to Consider
Lower output is likely to have hurt Marathon Oil’s revenues and cash flows. Despite MRO’s impressive production profile from its high-margin U.S. resource plays (Eagle Ford, Bakken, Oklahoma and Permian), our model estimate for MRO’s first-quarter volume is pegged at some 384,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d), down 3% from the year-ago quarter’s level of 396,000 BOE/d.
On a further bearish note, the increase in Marathon Oil’s costs might have dented its to-be-reported bottom line. In particular, our estimate for production cost is pegged at $209.2 million, indicating a 4.1% increase from $201 million reported in the year-ago quarter. The upward cost trajectory could be attributed to the ongoing inflationary environment. However, our model also predicts the company’s total expenses to go down 2.4% year over year to $1 billion.
But giving some respite to the company, a slight improvement in oil realizations is likely to have cushioned Marathon Oil’s revenues and cash flows. Going by our model, MRO’s first-quarter key U.S. E&P segment’s realized average liquids price (crude oil and condensate) is pegged at $75.54 per barrel — up from the year-earlier level of $74.69.
What Does Our Model Say?
The proven Zacks model does not conclusively show that Marathon Oil is likely to beat estimates in the first quarter of 2024. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. But that’s not the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: MRO has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at 53 cents per share each.
Zacks Rank: Marathon Oil currently carries a Zacks Rank #3, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, the company’s 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult this earnings season.
Stocks to Consider
While an earnings beat looks uncertain for MRO, here are some energy firms that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:
DT Midstream DTM has an Earnings ESP of +3.59% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Apr 30.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
DT Midstream beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed in the other. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 9.8%, on average. Valued at around $6.1 billion, DTM has gone up 16.3% in a year.
MPLX LP MPLX has an Earnings ESP of +3.78% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Apr 30.
The 2024 Zacks Consensus Estimate for MPLX indicates 8.2% year-over-year earnings per unit growth. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.3%, on average. Valued at around $41.6 billion, MPLX has gained 10.1% in a year.
ExxonMobil XOM has an Earnings ESP of +0.13% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Apr 26.
The 2024 Zacks Consensus Estimate for ExxonMobil indicates 1.9% year-over-year earnings per share growth. Valued at around $474.5 billion, XOM has edged up 1.4% in a year.
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Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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DT Midstream, Inc. (DTM) : Free Stock Analysis Report
