Yahoo Finance I’m an Economist: Here’s My Prediction for the Job Market If Kamala Harris Wins the Election
Now that Joe Biden has dropped out of the presidential race and Kamala Harris is poised to be the next front-runner of the Democratic party, people are wondering what’s next for the economy — particularly as pertains to the job market.
While it’s still too soon to say exactly what will happen if Harris becomes the next president, some economists have their predictions. While some signs point to a positive outcome for the job market, there’s also the possibility of it being a mixed bag — as is often the case with change.
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GOBankingRates spoke with Dennis Shirshikov, an economist and professor of economics and finance at City University of New York (CUNY), about what he predicts would happen to the job market with Harris in office. Here’s what he said.
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Some Industries Could See Steady Growth
“If Kamala Harris wins the election, I anticipate a mixed impact on the U.S. job market, driven by her policy proposals and political agenda,” Shirshikov said.
On the positive side, he predicts that a Harris presidency would begin with a short-term adjustment period followed by steady job growth in certain sectors — specifically renewable energy, tech and healthcare.
Shirshikov’s prediction about positive growth in tech was seconded by Jim Cramer, host of the CNBC show “Mad Money.”
“If you’re looking to invest in tech, you want a world where tech has a voice in Washington, not slashed vocal chords under Trump or on mute under Biden,” Cramer said in a CNBC article in reference to why Harris could be good for businesses and individual investors.
Harris also could take a more nuanced approach to these types of businesses, as well as emphasize communicating with major tech companies, which could lead to further growth in these areas.
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There Could Be More Support for Small Businesses (and More Jobs)
Shirshikov’s prediction of steady growth across certain industries is further supported by what occurred under the Biden-Harris administration. In an August 2023 press release, Harris addressed the importance of supporting small businesses and entrepreneurs, as well as boosting the job market as a whole, in the following ways:
Plans to grow and strengthen the American economy: Alongside Biden, Harris has worked to strengthen the country’s economy, particularly in ways that support the average person.
Creation of new jobs: Under the current Administration, Harris has supported the creation of millions of jobs. In July 2023, there were 187,000 new jobs created. In the course of two and a half years, over 13 million new jobs were created.
Drop in unemployment: According to Harris, unemployment rates have nearly reached their lowest levels in more than 50 years. Shirshikov also supported this, saying, “The overall unemployment rate is expected to decrease gradually as new policies take effect and markets adjust.”
Increased wages: Wages, she continued, are also up. This has been in support of workers and small business owners alike.
As per Shirshikov’s predictions, a society under Harris also could lead to growth in sectors like manufacturing.
“In addition, President Biden and I have invested billions in American manufacturing,” Harris said. “Now, put this in context: Since most manufacturing companies are small businesses with fewer than 20 employees, our investment in America’s manufacturing is also an investment in America’s small businesses. … All of this to say: America’s economic future looks bright.”
Infrastructure Investments Could Lead to More Job Creation
“Harris is likely to focus on economic equity, support for small businesses and infrastructure investments,” Shirshikov said. “The emphasis on infrastructure could lead to significant job creation in construction and related industries.”
Certain investments, Shirshikov continued, such as those in education and job-based training programs, could improve workers’ skills. This also could lead to greater employment opportunities in high-demand — and high-paying — fields.
And these changes wouldn’t just be in the main sectors. Harris has famously supported overlooked and underserved communities — including rural communities. If the current policies continue for another four years, this could have a positive effect on the job market in these communities.
Higher Wages Could Be a Mixed Bag
Wages have had trouble keeping up with inflation for years now, but Shirshikov believes there could be positive changes on the horizon. Not only could wages continue to rise; but, as inflation falls, it could lead to economic growth.
“Her commitment to raising the minimum wage and enhancing worker protections may boost consumer spending,” Shirshikov said.
But there’s always a potential downside to any major changes like these.
“Businesses may face increased regulatory and compliance costs, which could lead to cautious hiring practices and potential job losses in heavily regulated sectors,” Shirshikov said. “Industries that rely on low-wage labor might experience slower growth due to increased labor costs.”
Bottom Line
If Kamala Harris is elected president, there could be positive changes in many aspects of the job market. Wages may continue to increase, which could lead to more consumer spending. Small businesses and entrepreneurs also might continue to see more support, which could result in more available jobs and continue to bring down the unemployment rate.
Certain industries may see more growth than others, however. Along with this, proposed or anticipated policy changes could mean higher overhead costs for businesses. This could offset some of the positives, but only time will tell.
Editor’s note on election coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. For more coverage of this topic, please check out I’m an Economist: Here Are My Predictions for the Job Market If Trump Wins the Election.
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