A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Webjet Limited (ASX:WEB)

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Webjet fair value estimate is AU$6.63

• Current share price of AU$7.24 suggests Webjet is potentially trading close to its fair value

• The AU$8.12 analyst price target for WEB is 22% more than our estimate of fair value

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Webjet Limited (ASX:WEB) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Webjet

Crunching The Numbers

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (A$, Millions)	AU$149.6m	AU$177.2m	AU$198.3m	AU$159.6m	AU$159.0m	AU$159.6m	AU$161.0m	AU$163.0m	AU$165.4m	AU$168.2m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x4	Analyst x5	Analyst x4	Analyst x3	Analyst x2	Est @ 0.37%	Est @ 0.89%	Est @ 1.24%	Est @ 1.49%	Est @ 1.67%
Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 7.8%	AU$139	AU$153	AU$158	AU$118	AU$109	AU$102	AU$95.4	AU$89.7	AU$84.5	AU$79.7

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$1.1b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.1%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.8%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$168m× (1 + 2.1%) ÷ (7.8%– 2.1%) = AU$3.0b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= AU$3.0b÷ ( 1 + 7.8%)¹⁰= AU$1.4b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is AU$2.6b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of AU$7.2, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

ASX:WEB Discounted Cash Flow January 16th 2024

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Webjet as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.135. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Webjet

Strength

• Debt is not viewed as a risk.

Weakness

• No major weaknesses identified for WEB.

Opportunity

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market.

• Good value based on P/E ratio compared to estimated Fair P/E ratio.

Threat

• Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Webjet, we've put together three essential items you should consider:

1. Financial Health: Does WEB have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.

2. Future Earnings: How does WEB's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Australian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.