Advertisement
Canada markets closed
  • S&P/TSX

    21,807.37
    +98.93 (+0.46%)
     
  • S&P 500

    4,967.23
    -43.89 (-0.88%)
     
  • DOW

    37,986.40
    +211.02 (+0.56%)
     
  • CAD/USD

    0.7271
    +0.0008 (+0.11%)
     
  • CRUDE OIL

    83.24
    +0.51 (+0.62%)
     
  • Bitcoin CAD

    89,111.80
    -99.55 (-0.11%)
     
  • CMC Crypto 200

    1,346.16
    +33.54 (+2.55%)
     
  • GOLD FUTURES

    2,406.70
    +8.70 (+0.36%)
     
  • RUSSELL 2000

    1,947.66
    +4.70 (+0.24%)
     
  • 10-Yr Bond

    4.6150
    -0.0320 (-0.69%)
     
  • NASDAQ

    15,282.01
    -319.49 (-2.05%)
     
  • VOLATILITY

    18.71
    +0.71 (+3.94%)
     
  • FTSE

    7,895.85
    +18.80 (+0.24%)
     
  • NIKKEI 225

    37,068.35
    -1,011.35 (-2.66%)
     
  • CAD/EUR

    0.6824
    +0.0003 (+0.04%)
     

A Look At The Fair Value Of McChip Resources Inc. (CVE:MCS)

Key Insights

  • McChip Resources' estimated fair value is CA$0.82 based on Dividend Discount Model

  • With CA$0.90 share price, McChip Resources appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value

  • McChip Resources' peers are currently trading at a discount of 27% on average

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of McChip Resources Inc. (CVE:MCS) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

ADVERTISEMENT

See our latest analysis for McChip Resources

The Method

As McChip Resources operates in the oil and gas sector, we need to calculate the intrinsic value slightly differently. In this approach dividends per share (DPS) are used, as free cash flow is difficult to estimate and often not reported by analysts. This often underestimates the value of a stock, but it can still be good as a comparison to competitors. We use the Gordon Growth Model, which assumes dividend will grow into perpetuity at a rate that can be sustained. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a company's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In this case we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.9%). The expected dividend per share is then discounted to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.1%. Compared to the current share price of CA$0.9, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate - Perpetual Growth Rate)

= CA$0.06 / (9.1% – 1.9%)

= CA$0.8

dcf
dcf

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at McChip Resources as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.456. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for McChip Resources

Strength

  • Debt is well covered by earnings.

  • Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.

Weakness

  • Current share price is above our estimate of fair value.

Opportunity

  • MCS' financial characteristics indicate limited near-term opportunities for shareholders.

  • Lack of analyst coverage makes it difficult to determine MCS' earnings prospects.

Threat

  • Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.

  • Paying a dividend but company is unprofitable.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For McChip Resources, we've put together three additional factors you should consider:

  1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 5 warning signs for McChip Resources that you should be aware of before investing here.

  2. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

  3. Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the TSXV every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.