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Linamar Corporation (TSE:LNR), might not be a large cap stock, but it received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the TSX over the last few months, increasing to CA$81.64 at one point, and dropping to the lows of CA$63.61. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Linamar's current trading price of CA$66.36 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Linamar’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.
Is Linamar still cheap?
According to my valuation model, Linamar seems to be fairly priced at around 2.6% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Linamar today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth CA$68.10, then there’s not much of an upside to gain from mispricing. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Linamar’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.
What kind of growth will Linamar generate?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of Linamar, it is expected to deliver a relatively unexciting top-line growth of 6.3% over the next year, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. Growth doesn’t appear to be a main reason for a buy decision for the company, at least in the near term.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has already priced in LNR’s future outlook, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the financial strength of the company. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below its fair value?
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on LNR, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the positive outlook means it’s worth further examining other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Linamar at this point in time. Our analysis shows 2 warning signs for Linamar (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) and we strongly recommend you look at them before investing.
If you are no longer interested in Linamar, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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