Jobless aid applications dip during holiday hiring, but South Florida economy stays shaky

New applications for unemployment assistance in Florida declined last week, likely on the strength of holiday job gains. But other economic indicators show the local economy remains on unsteady footing.

For the week ending Nov. 28, new jobless claims in the state fell from 26,931 to 20,787. So-called continuing claims, or the number of unemployment filers seeking assistance for at least two straight weeks, also fell, from 186,291 to 125,910. And claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, the federal program for workers not eligible for regular state benefits, fell from 22,963 to 16,742.

For the U.S., new applications for jobless benefits fell for the first time in three weeks — to 712,000 from 787,000.

Economist Ian Shepherdson, of research group Pantheon Macroeconomics, said this week’s improved data was likely the result of Thanksgiving hiring — and that the broader trend for unemployment will continue higher in the coming weeks.

“We expect the trend in initial claims to rise through January, because we’re expecting the holiday season to push COVID cases up for a while, delaying the easing of restrictions,” he wrote in a note to clients Wednesday.

The lives of many South Florida residents remain precarious. The region remains second-worst in the nation among metropolitan areas reporting food and housing insecurity, according to U.S. Census Bureau data released this week.

Some 15% of South Florida households said there was “either sometimes or often not enough to eat” in the past week; the U.S. rate was 11.9%. Meanwhile, 11.4% of local residents said they were not current on rent or mortgage payments, “or who have slight or no confidence that their household can pay next month’s rent or mortgage on time.” The rate for the U.S. was 7.9%. And South Florida had the fourth-highest rate of residents saying they “expected someone in their household to have a loss in employment income in the next 4 weeks,” at 36.3%. The U.S. rate was 30.6%.

On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the unemployment report for October. Research group Oxford Economics is forecasting a net loss of 60,000 jobs in November, the first decline since April.

“Our Recovery Tracker employment index and the underlying high frequency employment measures signal a marked cooling in labor demand amid the surge in Covid cases,” the group said in a note this week.