Israel-Gaza war: the 2 things Israel wants China to do to help restore peace in the Middle East

In the past month or so China has stepped away from the sidelines of the Israel-Gaza war and towards the fray.

In mid-November, foreign ministers from Arab and Islamic countries stopped in the Chinese capital in their shuttle diplomacy to find an end to the conflict.

Later that month, Beijing released a five-point position paper, urging the UN Security Council to draw up a "concrete" timeline and road map for a two-state solution.

Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.

Then earlier this month Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called his Iranian counterpart - again - as fears persisted that a second front could open along the Lebanon border.

The engagement is just part of a series of efforts by China to contribute to a resolution to a conflict that risks spreading to the broader region.

But for Israel, the process is so far missing a crucial step - analysts say Israel would expect Beijing to adopt a "balanced" stance by first condemning Hamas' actions and using its leverage over Iran to prevent a spillover of the conflict.

Otherwise, they say, Israel will see China's approach merely as a way for Beijing to challenge the United States and position itself as a peace-seeking alternative.

Since the conflict erupted, Chinese officials have not condemned Hamas or referred to the group as a terrorist organisation. Israel defended its actions as self-defence, after Hamas - the Palestinian Islamist movement ruling Gaza - attacked southern Israel on October 7. However, China said Israel's actions after the attack went beyond self-defence.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, in his first public speech on the war in November, called on Israel to stop imposing "collective punishment" on the people of Gaza, while renewing calls for a ceasefire and a two-state solution.

According to Jean-Loup Samaan, a senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore's Middle East Institute, China has so far maintained its traditional pro-Palestinian policy and that "frustrated Israel".

Israel, he said, initially hoped China would consider the scale of Hamas' attack in October and the impact it had on Israeli society. Now, Israel did not expect much from China because its priorities were centred on the release of hostages and the military campaign in Gaza.

"In both cases, China cannot offer anything," Samaan said.

Efraim Inbar, professor of political studies at Bar-Ilan University in Tel Aviv, went further, saying China had "clearly estranged Israel".

"China in its recent actions became more hostile towards Israel. Israel definitely expects a more balanced position from China," Inbar said.

Inbar said Israel viewed China's repeated proposals of a ceasefire as an "anti-Israeli measure". Beijing, he added, had yet to denounce Hamas and that was "very problematic".

China's unwillingness to condemn Hamas and the "active pressure" put on Israel to end its campaign was likely to damage China-Israel ties in the near term, said Jesse Marks, a non-resident fellow with the Stimson Centre's China programme.

A truck loaded with humanitarian aid supplies to Gaza provided by the Chinese government waits in Cairo, Egypt, on November 27. Photo: Xinhua alt=A truck loaded with humanitarian aid supplies to Gaza provided by the Chinese government waits in Cairo, Egypt, on November 27. Photo: Xinhua>

Meanwhile, China's diplomatic efforts to stop the war appear to largely revolve around influencing other Middle Eastern nations.

China last month hosted senior officials from Arab and Islamic nations for "in-depth" talks on de-escalating the conflict, with the foreign ministry saying that China and Arab countries "share similar positions on Palestine issues".

And when Zhai Jun, its special envoy to the Middle East, toured the region, he visited Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan but skipped Israel and Palestine.

While observers said a visit from a Chinese diplomat to Israel would be seen as a positive gesture, Galia Lavi, deputy director of the Diane & Guilford Glazer Israel-China Policy Centre, said Israel would want China to acknowledge Hamas' actions before hosting a Chinese representative.

"If they [China] continue to ignore the terrible massacre that happened, I fail to see their contribution, as this kind of visit will only serve China's interest," she said.

Marks said China would not intervene in any "salient" way.

But China - building on success it had in the Middle East helping Iran and Saudi Arabia normalise ties - was trying to create the "political space" for Arab countries to pursue a more unified position. That could help bridge a lack of unity among Arab states, which had historically been a major spoiler to the peace process, Marks said.

"Beijing will focus on building the platform for dialogue and facilitate talks. It will not exert any leverage on Israel or Hamas to come to the table," he said.

"China sees its role in the current de-escalation process in Gaza as a mediator, but Israel is unlikely to view Chinese mediation efforts as meaningful or substantive."

Samaan said it would also indicate to Israeli leaders the limits of their partnership, at least on a diplomatic and strategic level. But he suggested that Beijing could still be of help to Israel. For example, China could exercise its influence on Iran to curb the flow of Tehran's support to non-state organisations such as Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad or Hezbollah.

"China could also play a major role in the post-conflict phase in Gaza, especially in terms of reconstruction, but that implies a clear political plan for the post-conflict phase which doesn't exist at the moment," Samaan added.

Earlier this month, during meetings in Tehran between Liu Jianchao, Communist Party international department chief, and senior Iranian politicians and officials, China said it supported Iran to play a role in maintaining regional peace and stability, while Tehran pledged to step up coordination with China on international and regional affairs.

Iran is believed to be a key military and financial backer of Hamas, although it has denied any involvement in the group's assault on Israel on October 7.

Lavi said China - despite having leverage over Iran for economic and diplomatic reasons - did not "seem willing to use this leverage to influence Iran in any way". She said China had failed to exert its influence to deter Tehran and its proxies from attacking Israel. One example, she said, was how China did not help Israel when Yemen's Houthi movement attacked Israeli vessels in recent weeks.

"It does not seem that China is interested in resolving the conflict and it only uses the conflict to challenge the US ... and present itself as a peace-seeking alternative," she said.

Samaan said both Israel and the US would be keen to see China play a greater role but there was no sign Beijing was willing to directly influence Iran with "coercive diplomacy". Even with its leverage over Iran, he warned, China might not be able to change Tehran's attitude.

"After all, Western countries have been sanctioning Iran for years and that did not lead to a shift in Tehran's regional policies, be it in Lebanon, Gaza or Syria," he said.

Fan Hongda, a professor at Shanghai International Studies University's Middle East Studies Institute, said Iran had a "very strong strategic autonomy" and it would be difficult for other countries - especially a single country such as China - to have a major influence on its decision making.

And, according to Zhou Bo, a senior fellow at the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, China would not seek to "abuse" its influence over Iran and pressure Tehran as much as Israel and Washington wanted, even though it was in Beijing's interest to prevent the conflict from spilling over.

As to whether China could potentially respond to Israel's calls for Beijing to take a more balanced approach, Zhou said: "It is difficult to shift after seeing the appalling humanitarian disaster in Gaza."

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2023 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

Copyright (c) 2023. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.