Are Investors Undervaluing Paycom Software, Inc. (NYSE:PAYC) By 33%?

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Paycom Software is US$296 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• Paycom Software is estimated to be 33% undervalued based on current share price of US$198

• Our fair value estimate is 45% higher than Paycom Software's analyst price target of US$204

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Paycom Software, Inc. (NYSE:PAYC) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Paycom Software

The Model

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$301.6m	US$366.4m	US$526.0m	US$604.1m	US$671.1m	US$727.8m	US$775.8m	US$816.9m	US$852.9m	US$885.0m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x10	Analyst x9	Analyst x1	Est @ 14.85%	Est @ 11.08%	Est @ 8.45%	Est @ 6.60%	Est @ 5.31%	Est @ 4.40%	Est @ 3.77%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.3%	US$284	US$325	US$438	US$474	US$495	US$506	US$507	US$503	US$494	US$482

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$4.5b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.3%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$885m× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (6.3%– 2.3%) = US$23b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$23b÷ ( 1 + 6.3%)¹⁰= US$12b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$17b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$198, the company appears quite good value at a 33% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Paycom Software as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.863. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Paycom Software

Strength

• Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

• Currently debt free.

Weakness

• Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Professional Services market.

Opportunity

• Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the American market.

• Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.

Threat

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Paycom Software, we've compiled three pertinent elements you should further examine:

1. Financial Health: Does PAYC have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.

2. Future Earnings: How does PAYC's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.