Are Investors Undervaluing Dine Brands Global, Inc. (NYSE:DIN) By 39%?

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Dine Brands Global fair value estimate is US$76.37

• Current share price of US$46.48 suggests Dine Brands Global is potentially 39% undervalued

• Analyst price target for DIN is US$59.25 which is 22% below our fair value estimate

How far off is Dine Brands Global, Inc. (NYSE:DIN) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Dine Brands Global

What's The Estimated Valuation?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$116.7m	US$115.9m	US$116.2m	US$117.2m	US$118.7m	US$120.6m	US$122.8m	US$125.2m	US$127.8m	US$130.5m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Est @ 0.25%	Est @ 0.86%	Est @ 1.29%	Est @ 1.59%	Est @ 1.80%	Est @ 1.95%	Est @ 2.05%	Est @ 2.12%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 11%	US$105	US$93.3	US$83.9	US$75.9	US$68.9	US$62.8	US$57.4	US$52.4	US$48.0	US$44.0

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$691m

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.3%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 11%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$130m× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (11%– 2.3%) = US$1.5b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$1.5b÷ ( 1 + 11%)¹⁰= US$489m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$1.2b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$46.5, the company appears quite undervalued at a 39% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Dine Brands Global as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 11%, which is based on a levered beta of 2.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Dine Brands Global

Strength

• Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

• Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.

Weakness

• Interest payments on debt are not well covered.

• Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Hospitality market.

Opportunity

• Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Threat

• Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.

• Total liabilities exceed total assets, which raises the risk of financial distress.

• Annual earnings are forecast to decline for the next 2 years.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Dine Brands Global, we've compiled three important aspects you should consider:

1. Risks: Be aware that Dine Brands Global is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those can't be ignored...

2. Future Earnings: How does DIN's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.