This indicator suggests the S&P 500 could hit 5800 by end of 2024

The S&P 500 is up more than 11% year-to-date with major brokerage firms on Wall Street raising their price targets in recent days.

Historical data suggests that when the S&P 500 experiences a 10% or more increase over the first 100 days of the year, it tends to continue rising.

The average return for the remainder of such years is 7.1%, with a median of 9.3%, according to Bank of America analysis.

"This equates to SPX 5640 to 5750 into yearend 2024. The average and median rest of year returns for all years going back to 1928 of 5.0% and 7.3%, respectively, point to SPX 5530 to 5650 into yearend," the report said.

The S&P 500's performance in the first 100 days of 2024 is particularly important as it occurs during a Presidential election year, which typically sees more modest gains.

Historically, the index is up 63% of the time during such periods, with an average return of -0.9% and a median return of 0.8%.

The 10.4% YTD gain for 2024 ranks as the second-best start in an election year since 1928, which saw a 12.5% increase.

Further strengthening the positive outlook, when the S&P 500 has risen in the first 100 days of a Presidential election year, the rest of the year has followed suit 93% of the time. The average return for these periods is an impressive 10.1%, with a median return of 8.9%.

In terms of the S&P 500, this could translate to a year-end target of 5800 and 5730, respectively.

Overall, historical patterns for all election years show the index up 88% of the time, with average and median returns of 8.8% and 8.5%, indicating a potential range of 5730 to 5700 for the S&P 500 by the close of 2024.

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