The Helvetia Holding AG (VTX:HELN) Analysts Have Been Trimming Their Sales Forecasts

Market forces rained on the parade of Helvetia Holding AG (VTX:HELN) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded their forecasts for this year. Revenue estimates were cut sharply as analysts signalled a weaker outlook - perhaps a sign that investors should temper their expectations as well.

After the downgrade, the consensus from Helvetia Holding's three analysts is for revenues of CHF8.8b in 2024, which would reflect a discernible 4.3% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 71% to CHF8.95. Before this latest update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CHF10b and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF8.95 in 2024. Indeed we can see that the consensus opinion has undergone some fundamental changes following the recent consensus updates, with a substantial drop in revenues and some minor tweaks to earnings numbers.

See our latest analysis for Helvetia Holding

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Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 4.3% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 0.6% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.7% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Helvetia Holding is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion from this consensus update is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with analysts holding earnings per share steady, in line with previous estimates. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that Helvetia Holding's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. Often, one downgrade can set off a daisy-chain of cuts, especially if an industry is in decline. So we wouldn't be surprised if the market became a lot more cautious on Helvetia Holding after today.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Helvetia Holding analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies backed by insiders.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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