Yahoo Finance Hawaiian Holdings (HA) Down 0.9% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Hawaiian Holdings (HA). Shares have lost about 0.9% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Hawaiian Holdings due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Narrower-Than-Expected Loss in Q4
Hawaiian Holdings’ fourth-quarter 2022 loss (excluding 49 cents from non-recurring items) of 49 cents per share was narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 71 cents. HA had incurred a loss of $1.37 in the year-ago quarter. Quarterly revenues of $731 million climbed 47.8% year over year but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $737.6 million.
Passenger revenues (contributing 89% to the top line) increased marginally to $650.8 million from fourth-quarter 2019 actuals. Scheduled airline traffic, measured in revenue passenger miles, declined 11.9% from fourth-quarter 2019 actuals to 3,982.7 million in the quarter under review. Scheduled capacity (measured in available seat miles) declined 5.9% to 4,931.7 million from the December quarter of 2019. Scheduled load factor (percentage of seats filled by passengers) deteriorated 5.4 points to 80.8% in the reported quarter as traffic decline was more than capacity reduction. Passenger revenue per ASM (PRASM) rose 6.7% to 13.20 cents. Yield (scheduled) increased 16.3% from fourth-quarter 2019 actuals.
Operating revenue per ASM (RASM) in first-quarter 2023 is expected to increase year over year in the 7.5-10.5% range. Capacity (or ASMs) is anticipated to increase 14% to 17% from the first-quarter 2022 level. Costs per ASM (excluding fuel & non-recurring items) are expected to be down 1% to up 2% from the first-quarter 2022 level.
Gallons of jet fuel consumed are expected to increase 17-20% from first-quarter 2022 level. The effective tax rate is anticipated to be around 21% during the first quarter of 2023. Fuel price per gallon is expected to be $3.10 for first-quarter 2023.
For full-year 2023, the company projects capital expenditures of approximately $330 to $380 million. Capacity is anticipated to increase between 9.5% and 12.5%. Costs per ASM (excluding fuel & non-recurring items) are expected to move up in the 1-5 % band. Gallons of jet fuel consumed are expected to increase 10.5-13.5%. Fuel price per gallon for the current year is anticipated to be $2.92.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted -397.28% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Hawaiian Holdings has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Hawaiian Holdings has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Hawaiian Holdings is part of the Zacks Transportation - Airline industry. Over the past month, United Airlines (UAL), a stock from the same industry, has gained 4.3%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended December 2022 more than a month ago.
United reported revenues of $12.4 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +51.4%. EPS of $2.46 for the same period compares with -$1.60 a year ago.
For the current quarter, United is expected to post earnings of $0.68 per share, indicating a change of +116% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +2.3% over the last 30 days.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) for United. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of A.
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Hawaiian Holdings, Inc. (HA) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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