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If You Had Bought Riverview Financial (NASDAQ:RIVE) Stock Three Years Ago, You'd Be Sitting On A 67% Loss, Today

If you are building a properly diversified stock portfolio, the chances are some of your picks will perform badly. But the long term shareholders of Riverview Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:RIVE) have had an unfortunate run in the last three years. Sadly for them, the share price is down 67% in that time. And more recent buyers are having a tough time too, with a drop of 57% in the last year. More recently, the share price has dropped a further 11% in a month.

See our latest analysis for Riverview Financial

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

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Riverview Financial saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 21% per year, over the last three years. The share price decline of 31% is actually steeper than the EPS slippage. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past. This increased caution is also evident in the rather low P/E ratio, which is sitting at 10.42.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

NasdaqGM:RIVE Past and Future Earnings April 21st 2020
NasdaqGM:RIVE Past and Future Earnings April 21st 2020

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Riverview Financial the TSR over the last 3 years was -64%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 0.8% in the twelve months, Riverview Financial shareholders did even worse, losing 55% (even including dividends) . However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 15% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Riverview Financial has 4 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

Riverview Financial is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.