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If You Had Bought Canada Goose Holdings (TSE:GOOS) Stock A Year Ago, You'd Be Sitting On A 32% Loss, Today

The simplest way to benefit from a rising market is to buy an index fund. When you buy individual stocks, you can make higher profits, but you also face the risk of under-performance. Unfortunately the Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (TSE:GOOS) share price slid 32% over twelve months. That's disappointing when you consider the market returned 13%. We wouldn't rush to judgement on Canada Goose Holdings because we don't have a long term history to look at. Furthermore, it's down 14% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders.

Check out our latest analysis for Canada Goose Holdings

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

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Even though the Canada Goose Holdings share price is down over the year, its EPS actually improved. It could be that the share price was previously over-hyped.

It's surprising to see the share price fall so much, despite the improved EPS. So it's well worth checking out some other metrics, too.

Canada Goose Holdings's revenue is actually up 38% over the last year. Since the fundamental metrics don't readily explain the share price drop, there might be an opportunity if the market has overreacted.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

TSX:GOOS Income Statement, January 17th 2020
TSX:GOOS Income Statement, January 17th 2020

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

A Different Perspective

While Canada Goose Holdings shareholders are down 32% for the year, the market itself is up 13%. While the aim is to do better than that, it's worth recalling that even great long-term investments sometimes underperform for a year or more. With the stock down 14% over the last three months, the market doesn't seem to believe that the company has solved all its problems. Given the relatively short history of this stock, we'd remain pretty wary until we see some strong business performance. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Canada Goose Holdings has 3 warning signs (and 2 which are significant) we think you should know about.

Canada Goose Holdings is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CA exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.