Aberdeen International Inc. (TSE:AAB) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 13% in the last month. But will that repair the damage for the weary investors who have owned this stock as it declined over half a decade? Probably not. Five years have seen the share price descend precipitously, down a full 72%. While the recent increase might be a green shoot, we're certainly hesitant to rejoice. The million dollar question is whether the company can justify a long term recovery.
Aberdeen International hasn't yet reported any revenue, so it's as much a business idea as an actual business. You have to wonder why venture capitalists aren't funding it. As a result, we think it's unlikely shareholders are paying much attention to current revenue, but rather speculating on growth in the years to come. Investors will be hoping that Aberdeen International can make progress and gain better traction for the business, before it runs low on cash.
We think companies that have neither significant revenues nor profits are pretty high risk. You should be aware that there is always a chance that this sort of company will need to issue more shares to raise money to continue pursuing its business plan. While some companies like this go on to deliver on their plan, making good money for shareholders, many end in painful losses and eventual de-listing. Some Aberdeen International investors have already had a taste of the bitterness stocks like this can leave in the mouth.
When it last reported its balance sheet in April 2019, Aberdeen International could boast a strong position, with cash in excess of all liabilities of CA$19m. This gives management the flexibility to drive business growth, without worrying too much about cash reserves. But with the share price diving 22% per year, over 5 years, it could be that the price was previously too hyped up. You can click on the image below to see (in greater detail) how Aberdeen International's cash levels have changed over time. You can see in the image below, how Aberdeen International's cash levels have changed over time (click to see the values).
Of course, the truth is that it is hard to value companies without much revenue or profit. What if insiders are ditching the stock hand over fist? I would feel more nervous about the company if that were so. It costs nothing but a moment of your time to see if we are picking up on any insider selling.
A Different Perspective
Aberdeen International shareholders are down 67% for the year, but the market itself is up 1.2%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 22% per year over five years. We realise that Buffett has said investors should 'buy when there is blood on the streets', but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality businesses. Shareholders might want to examine this detailed historical graph of past earnings, revenue and cash flow.
Of course Aberdeen International may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CA exchanges.
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If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.