What Is Grafton Group plc's (LON:GFTU) Share Price Doing?

While Grafton Group plc (LON:GFTU) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it led the LSE gainers with a relatively large price hike in the past couple of weeks. With many analysts covering the mid-cap stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Let’s take a look at Grafton Group’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists.

See our latest analysis for Grafton Group

What's the opportunity in Grafton Group?

The share price seems sensible at the moment according to my price multiple model, where I compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that Grafton Group’s ratio of 26.44x is trading in-line with its industry peers’ ratio, which means if you buy Grafton Group today, you’d be paying a relatively reasonable price for it. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Grafton Group’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.

What kind of growth will Grafton Group generate?

earnings-and-revenue-growth

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. With profit expected to grow by 48% over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for Grafton Group. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has already priced in GFTU’s positive outlook, with shares trading around industry price multiples. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at GFTU? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below the industry PE ratio?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on GFTU, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. However, the optimistic forecast is encouraging for GFTU, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Grafton Group you should know about.

If you are no longer interested in Grafton Group, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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