Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (NASDAQ:JBHT)

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for J.B. Hunt Transport Services is US$150 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• With US$160 share price, J.B. Hunt Transport Services appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value

• Analyst price target for JBHT is US$190, which is 27% above our fair value estimate

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (NASDAQ:JBHT) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for J.B. Hunt Transport Services

The Calculation

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$634.8m	US$565.8m	US$616.0m	US$613.0m	US$747.0m	US$796.8m	US$839.7m	US$877.3m	US$911.1m	US$942.2m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x5	Analyst x5	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 6.67%	Est @ 5.38%	Est @ 4.48%	Est @ 3.85%	Est @ 3.41%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.1%	US$593	US$494	US$502	US$467	US$531	US$529	US$521	US$508	US$493	US$476

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$5.1b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.4%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.1%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$942m× (1 + 2.4%) ÷ (7.1%– 2.4%) = US$21b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$21b÷ ( 1 + 7.1%)¹⁰= US$10b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$16b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$160, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at J.B. Hunt Transport Services as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.018. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for J.B. Hunt Transport Services

Strength

• Debt is not viewed as a risk.

Weakness

• Earnings declined over the past year.

• Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Transportation market.

• Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Opportunity

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.

• Significant insider buying over the past 3 months.

Threat

• Dividends are not covered by cash flow.

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For J.B. Hunt Transport Services, we've put together three important aspects you should assess:

1. Financial Health: Does JBHT have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.

2. Future Earnings: How does JBHT's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.