Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY)

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Eli Lilly is US$388 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• With US$329 share price, Eli Lilly appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value

• Our fair value estimate is 3.4% lower than Eli Lilly's analyst price target of US$375

How far off is Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Eli Lilly

Is Eli Lilly Fairly Valued?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$6.47b	US$8.58b	US$11.1b	US$14.8b	US$16.7b	US$18.2b	US$19.3b	US$20.4b	US$21.2b	US$22.0b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x8	Analyst x9	Analyst x8	Analyst x4	Analyst x4	Est @ 8.51%	Est @ 6.58%	Est @ 5.23%	Est @ 4.28%	Est @ 3.62%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.8%	US$6.1k	US$7.5k	US$9.1k	US$11.4k	US$12.0k	US$12.2k	US$12.2k	US$12.0k	US$11.7k	US$11.4k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$106b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.1%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.8%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$22b× (1 + 2.1%) ÷ (6.8%– 2.1%) = US$473b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$473b÷ ( 1 + 6.8%)¹⁰= US$244b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$350b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$329, the company appears about fair value at a 15% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Eli Lilly as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Eli Lilly

Strength

• Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

• Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.

• Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.

Weakness

• Earnings growth over the past year is below its 5-year average.

• Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Pharmaceuticals market.

Opportunity

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.

• Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.

Threat

• Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Eli Lilly, there are three important factors you should further research:

1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Eli Lilly that you should be aware of before investing here.

2. Future Earnings: How does LLY's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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