Estimating The Fair Value Of AutoZone, Inc. (NYSE:AZO)

Key Insights

• AutoZone's estimated fair value is US$3,316 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• With US$2,882 share price, AutoZone appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value

• Our fair value estimate is 3.8% higher than AutoZone's analyst price target of US$3,195

Does the July share price for AutoZone, Inc. (NYSE:AZO) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for AutoZone

The Method

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$2.72b	US$2.94b	US$2.95b	US$3.15b	US$3.27b	US$3.39b	US$3.49b	US$3.59b	US$3.69b	US$3.79b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x6	Analyst x5	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 3.84%	Est @ 3.40%	Est @ 3.10%	Est @ 2.88%	Est @ 2.73%	Est @ 2.63%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.7%	US$2.5k	US$2.5k	US$2.4k	US$2.3k	US$2.3k	US$2.2k	US$2.1k	US$2.0k	US$1.9k	US$1.8k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$22b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.4%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.7%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$3.8b× (1 + 2.4%) ÷ (7.7%– 2.4%) = US$73b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$73b÷ ( 1 + 7.7%)¹⁰= US$35b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$57b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$2.9k, the company appears about fair value at a 13% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at AutoZone as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.157. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for AutoZone

Strength

• Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

• Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.

Weakness

• Earnings growth over the past year is below its 5-year average.

Opportunity

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.

• Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.

Threat

• Total liabilities exceed total assets, which raises the risk of financial distress.

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For AutoZone, we've put together three relevant aspects you should further examine:

1. Risks: Take risks, for example - AutoZone has 3 warning signs (and 2 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.

2. Future Earnings: How does AZO's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com