Earnings Update: Aclaris Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACRS) Just Reported And Analysts Are Boosting Their Estimates

A week ago, Aclaris Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACRS) came out with a strong set of first-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Revenues of US$2.4m beat estimates by a substantial 24% margin. Unfortunately, Aclaris Therapeutics also reported a statutory loss of US$0.24 per share, which at least was smaller than the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Aclaris Therapeutics

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After the latest results, the consensus from Aclaris Therapeutics' seven analysts is for revenues of US$8.50m in 2024, which would reflect a disturbing 73% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 31% to US$0.75. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$7.76m and losses of US$0.97 per share in 2024. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a very favorable reduction to loss per share in particular.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$1.84, perhaps suggesting that the analysts remain concerned about ongoing losses despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aclaris Therapeutics at US$3.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$1.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 82% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 45% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 9.4% per year. It's pretty clear that Aclaris Therapeutics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$1.84, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Aclaris Therapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Aclaris Therapeutics (including 1 which is concerning) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.