Does This Valuation Of Winpak Ltd. (TSE:WPK) Imply Investors Are Overpaying?

Key Insights

• Winpak's estimated fair value is CA$31.71 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• Winpak is estimated to be 33% overvalued based on current share price of CA$42.20

• The US$51.12 analyst price target for WPK is 61% more than our estimate of fair value

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Winpak Ltd. (TSE:WPK) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Winpak

Is Winpak Fairly Valued?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$143.9m	US$112.8m	US$95.9m	US$86.3m	US$80.7m	US$77.5m	US$75.7m	US$74.9m	US$74.7m	US$75.0m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x3	Analyst x3	Est @ -15.04%	Est @ -10.00%	Est @ -6.47%	Est @ -4.00%	Est @ -2.27%	Est @ -1.06%	Est @ -0.22%	Est @ 0.38%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.5%	US$135	US$99.5	US$79.3	US$67.0	US$58.9	US$53.1	US$48.7	US$45.2	US$42.4	US$39.9

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$669m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.8%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.5%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$75m× (1 + 1.8%) ÷ (6.5%– 1.8%) = US$1.6b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$1.6b÷ ( 1 + 6.5%)¹⁰= US$855m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$1.5b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CA$42.2, the company appears potentially overvalued at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Winpak as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Winpak

Strength

• Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

• Currently debt free.

Weakness

• Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Packaging market.

• Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Opportunity

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Canadian market.

• Significant insider buying over the past 3 months.

Threat

• Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the Canadian market.

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price exceeding the intrinsic value? For Winpak, we've compiled three additional elements you should further research:

1. Financial Health: Does WPK have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.

2. Future Earnings: How does WPK's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Canadian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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