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What Does Points International Ltd.'s (TSE:PTS) Share Price Indicate?

Points International Ltd. (TSE:PTS), which is in the online retail business, and is based in Canada, saw a decent share price growth in the teens level on the TSX over the last few months. As a small cap stock, hardly covered by any analysts, there is generally more of an opportunity for mispricing as there is less activity to push the stock closer to fair value. Is there still an opportunity here to buy? Let’s examine Points International’s valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there’s still a bargain opportunity.

View our latest analysis for Points International

Is Points International still cheap?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 18% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Points International today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth CA$19.47, then there’s not much of an upside to gain from mispricing. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Points International’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.

Can we expect growth from Points International?

TSX:PTS Past and Future Earnings, August 21st 2019
TSX:PTS Past and Future Earnings, August 21st 2019

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. However, with a negative profit growth of -9.7% expected next year, near-term growth certainly doesn’t appear to be a driver for a buy decision for Points International. This certainty tips the risk-return scale towards higher risk.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? Currently, PTS appears to be trading around its fair value, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to reduce the risk in your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock beneficial for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

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Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on PTS for a while, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The price seems to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. Furthermore, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help crystalize your views on PTS should the price fluctuate below its true value.

Price is just the tip of the iceberg. Dig deeper into what truly matters – the fundamentals – before you make a decision on Points International. You can find everything you need to know about Points International in the latest infographic research report. If you are no longer interested in Points International, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.