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Digital Turbine, Inc. (NASDAQ:APPS) Shares Could Be 49% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Key Insights

  • Digital Turbine's estimated fair value is US$21.28 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

  • Digital Turbine's US$10.91 share price signals that it might be 49% undervalued

  • Analyst price target for APPS is US$17.15 which is 19% below our fair value estimate

Does the February share price for Digital Turbine, Inc. (NASDAQ:APPS) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

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Check out our latest analysis for Digital Turbine

The Method

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

Levered FCF ($, Millions)

US$111.1m

US$170.2m

US$221.4m

US$152.7m

US$174.2m

US$171.4m

US$170.6m

US$171.1m

US$172.5m

US$174.5m

Growth Rate Estimate Source

Analyst x1

Analyst x2

Analyst x2

Analyst x1

Analyst x1

Est @ -1.58%

Est @ -0.49%

Est @ 0.28%

Est @ 0.82%

Est @ 1.19%

Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 9.2%

US$102

US$143

US$170

US$108

US$112

US$101

US$92.4

US$84.9

US$78.4

US$72.7

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$1.1b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.1%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 9.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$175m× (1 + 2.1%) ÷ (9.2%– 2.1%) = US$2.5b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$2.5b÷ ( 1 + 9.2%)10= US$1.0b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$2.1b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$10.9, the company appears quite undervalued at a 49% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf
dcf

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Digital Turbine as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.193. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Digital Turbine

Strength

  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

  • Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.

Weakness

  • Earnings growth over the past year is below its 5-year average.

  • Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.

Opportunity

  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.

  • Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Threat

  • Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Digital Turbine, we've put together three relevant elements you should assess:

  1. Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Digital Turbine you should be aware of.

  2. Future Earnings: How does APPS's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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