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Did You Manage To Avoid Midland Exploration's (CVE:MD) 32% Share Price Drop?

In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But in any portfolio, there are likely to be some stocks that fall short of that benchmark. We regret to report that long term Midland Exploration Inc. (CVE:MD) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 32% in three years, versus a market return of about 18%. Furthermore, it's down 11% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders.

View our latest analysis for Midland Exploration

With just CA$59,906 worth of revenue in twelve months, we don't think the market considers Midland Exploration to have proven its business plan. We can't help wondering why it's publicly listed so early in its journey. Are venture capitalists not interested? As a result, we think it's unlikely shareholders are paying much attention to current revenue, but rather speculating on growth in the years to come. For example, investors may be hoping that Midland Exploration finds some valuable resources, before it runs out of money.

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As a general rule, if a company doesn't have much revenue, and it loses money, then it is a high risk investment. There is usually a significant chance that they will need more money for business development, putting them at the mercy of capital markets. So the share price itself impacts the value of the shares (as it determines the cost of capital). While some companies like this go on to deliver on their plan, making good money for shareholders, many end in painful losses and eventual de-listing.

When it last reported its balance sheet in June 2019, Midland Exploration had cash in excess of all liabilities of CA$14m. That's not too bad but management may have to think about raising capital or taking on debt, unless the company is close to breaking even. With the share price down 12% per year, over 3 years , it seems likely that the need for cash is weighing on investors' minds. The image below shows how Midland Exploration's balance sheet has changed over time; if you want to see the precise values, simply click on the image. You can click on the image below to see (in greater detail) how Midland Exploration's cash levels have changed over time.

TSXV:MD Historical Debt, November 18th 2019
TSXV:MD Historical Debt, November 18th 2019

It can be extremely risky to invest in a company that doesn't even have revenue. There's no way to know its value easily. Would it bother you if insiders were selling the stock? I'd like that just about as much as I like to drink milk and fruit juice mixed together. It only takes a moment for you to check whether we have identified any insider sales recently.

A Different Perspective

Midland Exploration shareholders are down 20% for the year, but the market itself is up 11%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 5.4% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. If you want to research this stock further, the data on insider buying is an obvious place to start. You can click here to see who has been buying shares - and the price they paid.

Midland Exploration is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CA exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.