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Did Changing Sentiment Drive MAN's (ETR:MAN) Share Price Down By 46%?

The simplest way to benefit from a rising market is to buy an index fund. But if you buy individual stocks, you can do both better or worse than that. For example, the MAN SE (ETR:MAN) share price is down 46% in the last year. That's disappointing when you consider the market returned -1.7%. To make matters worse, the returns over three years have also been really disappointing (the share price is 46% lower than three years ago). Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 23% in the last 90 days.

Check out our latest analysis for MAN

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

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Even though the MAN share price is down over the year, its EPS actually improved. Of course, the situation might betray previous over-optimism about growth. It's fair to say that the share price does not seem to be reflecting the EPS growth. So it's well worth checking out some other metrics, too.

MAN's revenue is actually up 25% over the last year. Since we can't easily explain the share price movement based on these metrics, it might be worth considering how market sentiment has changed towards the stock.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

XTRA:MAN Income Statement, September 6th 2019
XTRA:MAN Income Statement, September 6th 2019

We know that MAN has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We've already covered MAN's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. MAN's TSR of was a loss of 42% for the year. That wasn't as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that MAN shareholders are down 42% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 1.7%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 7.5% over the last half decade. We realise that Buffett has said investors should 'buy when there is blood on the streets', but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality businesses. Before deciding if you like the current share price, check how MAN scores on these 3 valuation metrics.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on DE exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.