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Did Changing Sentiment Drive M&T Bank's (NYSE:MTB) Share Price Down By 34%?

Simply Wall St

It's nice to see the M&T Bank Corporation (NYSE:MTB) share price up 18% in a week. But that is minimal compensation for the share price under-performance over the last year. The cold reality is that the stock has dropped 34% in one year, under-performing the market.

Check out our latest analysis for M&T Bank

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Unhappily, M&T Bank had to report a 11% decline in EPS over the last year. This reduction in EPS is not as bad as the 34% share price fall. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, a year ago. The less favorable sentiment is reflected in its current P/E ratio of 8.72.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

NYSE:MTB Past and Future Earnings May 28th 2020

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. This free interactive report on M&T Bank's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

Investors should note that there's a difference between M&T Bank's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Dividends have been really beneficial for M&T Bank shareholders, and that cash payout explains why its total shareholder loss of 32%, over the last year, isn't as bad as the share price return.

A Different Perspective

M&T Bank shareholders are down 32% for the year (even including dividends) , but the market itself is up 9.5%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 0.2% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for M&T Bank that you should be aware of before investing here.

M&T Bank is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.