Devin Nunes’ retirement could mean an opening for California Democrats. Who might run?

California Republicans will have another seat to defend in 2022 after U.S. Rep. Devin Nunes, R-Tulare, announced he was stepping down on Monday to join the Trump Media Group.

Depending on redistricting, Democrats could have a serious chance at winning the seat, political watchers say.

Nunes has represented the San Joaquin Valley in Congress for the past 18 years. His district includes most of western Tulare County and eastern Fresno County. A staunch defender of former President Donald Trump, Nunes was one of the first congressional Republicans to condemn investigations into alleged connections between the Trump campaign and Russian operatives.

He is also known as a top-tier fundraiser in Congress, hauling in $26.8 million in the 2020 cycle.

Nunes’ departure opens up a potential battleground in California as Republicans hope to win the House majority in 2022 midterm election.

An independent commission is redrawing California voting districts for the once-a-decade process that follows the U.S. census. Final maps are due by Dec. 27 and California’s primary election is scheduled for June 7, 2022.

Nunes’ district would become less favorable to him in the commission’s latest map. His district would lose a chunk of his conservative base and it would be replaced with more-liberal south Fresno.

In the meantime, voters in Nunes’ district will choose a temporary replacement in a special election early this summer. Republicans have an advantage in the current boundaries and a win in that special election could raise a candidate’s profile for the midterm.

Assemblyman Devon Mathis, R-Visalia, congratulated Nunes on Twitter, saying “to all those who have been reaching out, thank you, I appreciate you. The lines are not drawn yet, my eyes are open.”

A spokesman for State Sen. Andreas Borgeas, R-Fresno, confirmed he is “seriously considering” a run for the seat.

Other Fresno-area politicians that could potentially run include Fresno County Supervisor Steve Brandau, or Fresno City Councilman Garry Bredefeld.

Bredefeld, a conservative Republican, said despite the changing district, he believes a Republican can hold the seat. “I’m getting tons of calls from people asking me to run. I’m seriously considering it,” he said. “I hold traditional beliefs. I’m a fighter and we need a fighter in the Congress.”

An opening for Democrats

Nunes in recent elections faced relatively inexperienced Democratic challengers who raised a lot of money, but could not unseat him. News of his retirement has other Democratic leaders weighing options.

State Sen. Melissa Hurtado, D-Sanger, tweeted about receiving a flood of messages from supporters encouraging her to run, but said she wants to see what redistricting lines look like first.

Even before Nunes’ departure, the 22nd District had a chance of being a swing seat next year because of redistricting. Now, without an incumbent Republican, the likelihood of a competitive general election increases.

“It could be more effective and more of a Democratic opportunity if it’s vacated,” Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., said of Nunes district. “I think it’s fair to say that the Nunes seat, as currently drafted, would be a competitive, general election between depending on what Democrat ran for it and who the Republicans got in the field.”

The districts as currently drafted will likely change before the final deadline, Mitchell said.

Mike Madrid, a California Republican consultant who campaigned against Trump with Project Lincoln, said Republicans could certainly win Nunes’ seat, but it’s going to be tough. Madrid predicted national politics will drive the campaign dynamics more than the individual candidates.

Devin Nunes’ 2020 challenger running again

Fresno Democrat Phil Arballo announced in January he would be challenging Nunes again. The small business owner ran against Nunes in 2020, coming within nine points.

Newcomer Lourin Hubbard made his announcement in June. The Fresno Democrat, who was born in Bakersfield, works for the California Department of Water Resources.

Both of them have pointed to the siege on the Capitol on Jan. 6 as inspiration for a change in the Valley seat.

Shortly after news of Nunes’ departure broke, California GOP Chairwoman Jessica Millan Patterson issued a statement praising the congressman.

“I am also grateful for his ongoing commitment to the California Republican Party and for the friendship he has shown to me throughout the years. As he moves on to the next chapter, I wish him nothing but the best in all of his future endeavors,” she said.

The California Democratic Party took a different tone.

“Devin Nunes has long been an embarrassment to California. It’s only fitting that he now leaves Congress to debase himself even further to Donald Trump,” the party said on Twitter. “We look forward to supporting a candidate in CA-22 who will actually work for the people.”