Whitbread plc (LON:WTB) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 17% in the last month. But that cannot eclipse the less-than-impressive returns over the last three years. Truth be told the share price declined 33% in three years and that return, Dear Reader, falls short of what you could have got from passive investing with an index fund.
While the last three years has been tough for Whitbread shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Whitbread became profitable within the last five years. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. So it's worth looking at other metrics to try to understand the share price move.
With a rather small yield of just 0.8% we doubt that the stock's share price is based on its dividend. With revenue flat over three years, it seems unlikely that the share price is reflecting the top line. We're not entirely sure why the share price is dropped, but it does seem likely investors have become less optimistic about the business.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We know that Whitbread has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Whitbread will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Whitbread the TSR over the last 3 years was -20%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Whitbread shareholders are down 1.5% over twelve months (even including dividends), which isn't far from the market return of -1.4%. Unfortunately, last year's performance is a deterioration of an already poor long term track record, given the loss of 1.0% per year over the last five years. It will probably take a substantial improvement in the fundamental performance for the company to reverse this trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Whitbread that you should be aware of before investing here.
Of course Whitbread may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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