Yahoo Finance David Rosenberg: These 14 stocks could benefit from Canada's immigration boom
Even with record low fertility and birth rates, Canada is undergoing a nearly unprecedented population boom — well in excess of three per cent annualized growth. The reason is clear: an unrivalled immigration surge that hit an inflow of almost 1.3 million people from other countries around the world in 2023. Without this, the civilian population would be in decline.
What makes immigration different from natural homegrown population growth is that these new residents start to spend money immediately. They need food, shelter and other basic necessities right away. Babies and infants, meanwhile, need a crib and formula.
The fact that Canadian output and incomes are in decline in real per capita terms attests to the host of other impediments to economic activity that have little to do with the immigration file (chronic lack of competitiveness, receding productivity, the government’s ascent relative to the size of the economy, with the business sector’s gross domestic product share in decline).
But this influx of adults is having an impact on consumer spending patterns, and the question for investors is where to seek out the opportunities.
The focus is on where immigrants spend their money. They are not going to be flying anywhere, eating out or going to the movies — discretionary purchases won’t come until later. The biggest focus will be on getting their footing.
But they do need a roof over their heads. They still need to eat, most likely at home, and they are going to need other basics such as telecom services and utilities. So, the theme here is to focus attention on what immigrants need, not what they want, which comes later when they develop a recurring income stream (note that these are not recommendations, but rather which companies would stand to benefit the most from this specific theme):
Dollarama Inc.
Loblaw Cos. Ltd. or Metro Inc. — since Loblaw owns Shoppers Drug Mart, that is a no-brainer — and Empire Co. Ltd. (owner of Sobey’s). All three control the market and have discount brands (think No Frills, Fresh Co., Food Basics, etc.).
Restaurant Brands International Inc., because the one place they will line up is Tim Hortons.
Canadian Tire Corp. Ltd.
Canadian Apartment Properties Real Estate Investment Trust.
InterRent Real Estate Investment Trust.
Sleep Country Holdings Inc.
Rogers Communications Inc. or BCE Inc. — take your pick.
Utilities: Hydro One Ltd., Fortis Inc., TransAlta Corp.
Outside the public investing space, the question becomes: Where else do immigrants spend their money?
Learning English, so if you work in the field of teaching English as a second language, you are in a bull market profession. Where is the first place immigrants want to visit? Niagara Falls, so if you operate a business there, a tip of the hat to you. And if you are in the job-headhunting field, your business also stands to benefit immensely.
All that said, teenagers looking for babysitting jobs or those involved in the daycare industry will definitely not be thrilled with the fact that years of decline in fertility and birth rates have taken Canada’s toddler population — four years and younger — down to a 13-year low. This is one area where immigration cannot act as much of an antidote.
David Rosenberg is founder and president of independent research firm Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc. To receive more of David Rosenberg’s insights and analysis, you can sign up for a complimentary, one-month trial on the Rosenberg Research website.
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