Yahoo Finance CureVac N.V. (NASDAQ:CVAC) Just Released Its First-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates
CureVac N.V. (NASDAQ:CVAC) just released its latest quarterly report and things are not looking great. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of €12m missing analyst predictions by 4.0%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of €0.31 per share, much larger than the analysts had forecast prior to the result. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on CureVac after the latest results.
View our latest analysis for CureVac
Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from eight analysts covering CureVac is for revenues of €55.9m in 2024. This implies a measurable 5.3% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 37% to €0.77. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €59.5m and losses of €0.86 per share in 2024. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in analyst sentiment with the latest consensus release, given the upgrade to loss per share forecasts for this year.
There was no major change to the US$9.69average price target, suggesting that the adjustments to revenue and earnings are not expected to have a long-term impact on the business. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on CureVac, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$18.02 and the most bearish at US$2.59 per share. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would also point out that the forecast 7.0% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2024 is better than the historical trend, which saw revenues shrink 13% annually over the past three years By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 18% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect CureVac to suffer worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Even so, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on CureVac. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for CureVac going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with CureVac (at least 1 which is significant) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.