Yahoo Finance Corporate Travel Management Limited's (ASX:CTD) Dismal Stock Performance Reflects Weak Fundamentals
It is hard to get excited after looking at Corporate Travel Management's (ASX:CTD) recent performance, when its stock has declined 22% over the past three months. Given that stock prices are usually driven by a company’s fundamentals over the long term, which in this case look pretty weak, we decided to study the company's key financial indicators. Specifically, we decided to study Corporate Travel Management's ROE in this article.
Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.
View our latest analysis for Corporate Travel Management
How Is ROE Calculated?
Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Corporate Travel Management is:
9.6% = AU$113m ÷ AU$1.2b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).
The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. So, this means that for every A$1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of A$0.10.
What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?
So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.
Corporate Travel Management's Earnings Growth And 9.6% ROE
At first glance, Corporate Travel Management's ROE doesn't look very promising. However, given that the company's ROE is similar to the average industry ROE of 10%, we may spare it some thought. However, Corporate Travel Management has seen a flattish net income growth over the past five years, which is not saying much. Bear in mind, the company's ROE is not very high. Hence, this provides some context to the flat earnings growth seen by the company.
Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that the industry grew its earnings by 7.4% over the last few years.
Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. What is CTD worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether CTD is currently mispriced by the market.
Is Corporate Travel Management Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?
Corporate Travel Management has a high three-year median payout ratio of 57% (or a retention ratio of 43%), meaning that the company is paying most of its profits as dividends to its shareholders. This does go some way in explaining why there's been no growth in its earnings.
In addition, Corporate Travel Management has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 52%. Still, forecasts suggest that Corporate Travel Management's future ROE will rise to 12% even though the the company's payout ratio is not expected to change by much.
Conclusion
Overall, we would be extremely cautious before making any decision on Corporate Travel Management. The company has seen a lack of earnings growth as a result of retaining very little profits and whatever little it does retain, is being reinvested at a very low rate of return. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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