Are Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (NYSE:FIX) Investors Paying Above The Intrinsic Value?

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Comfort Systems USA is US$274 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• Current share price of US$342 suggests Comfort Systems USA is potentially 25% overvalued

• Our fair value estimate is 17% lower than Comfort Systems USA's analyst price target of US$331

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (NYSE:FIX) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Comfort Systems USA

Is Comfort Systems USA Fairly Valued?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$429.1m	US$454.1m	US$474.0m	US$491.8m	US$508.3m	US$523.9m	US$538.9m	US$553.5m	US$568.0m	US$582.4m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x3	Analyst x3	Est @ 4.37%	Est @ 3.77%	Est @ 3.35%	Est @ 3.06%	Est @ 2.86%	Est @ 2.71%	Est @ 2.61%	Est @ 2.54%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.2%	US$400	US$395	US$385	US$373	US$360	US$346	US$332	US$318	US$305	US$292

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$3.5b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.4%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$582m× (1 + 2.4%) ÷ (7.2%– 2.4%) = US$12b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$12b÷ ( 1 + 7.2%)¹⁰= US$6.2b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$9.8b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$342, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Comfort Systems USA as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.039. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Comfort Systems USA

Strength

• Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

• Debt is not viewed as a risk.

Weakness

• Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Construction market.

• Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Opportunity

• Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the American market.

Threat

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. What is the reason for the share price exceeding the intrinsic value? For Comfort Systems USA, we've put together three important aspects you should look at:

1. Risks: Take risks, for example - Comfort Systems USA has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

2. Future Earnings: How does FIX's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.