Chuy's Holdings, Inc. Just Beat EPS By 6.7%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Last week, you might have seen that Chuy's Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:CHUY) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.5% to US$28.10 in the past week. Chuy's Holdings reported US$110m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.40 beat expectations, being 6.7% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Chuy's Holdings

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Following last week's earnings report, Chuy's Holdings' nine analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$467.4m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 3.7% to US$1.81. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$472.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.84 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$37.14, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Chuy's Holdings analyst has a price target of US$41.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$32.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Chuy's Holdings is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Chuy's Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 2.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 3.1% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Chuy's Holdings is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Chuy's Holdings going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.