China Holidays Test Consumer Stocks Mired in Spending Gloom

(Bloomberg) -- China’s two upcoming public holidays are putting a spotlight on consumer-related shares amid a struggling spending recovery.

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Holiday consumption is in focus as a spending downswing and deflation risks continue to hamper the world’s second-biggest economy. Investors will be watching for any hints of a rebound during the Sept. 15-17 Mid-Autumn festival and Golden Week from Oct. 1-7.

Some positive signs have already started to emerge, with pre-booking data pointing to higher travel demand compared to both pre-Covid levels and the Dragon Boat Festival in June. However, consumers’ willingness to spend remains in question despite policymakers’ efforts to ramp up economic activity.

“Domestic travel numbers may show some growth, but may be offset by more budget-conscious spending,” said Marvin Chen, a strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. “Given the macro environment, expectations may be quite low. But with the focus on consumption recovery, any surprises could boost market sentiment.”

Confidence in China’s stock market has continued to wane as a years-long property crisis, geopolitical tensions and earnings weakness cloud the outloud. The CSI 300 Index is now trading around its lowest level since January 2019 and is down about 8% so far this year.

Consumer staples have been among the worst sectors in 2024, shedding more than 23%. The shares dropped as much as 1.9% on Friday to their lowest level since March 2020, with baijiu bellwether Kweichow Moutai Co. losing 2.8%. Airlines also declined after Citigroup Inc. downgraded some stocks on concerns of weakening demand.

Here are the stocks and sectors to watch during China’s holidays:

Travel

Shares of companies tied to hotels, airlines and e-commerce platforms may find support in data showing a continued rebound in travel demand.

Booking orders for hotels, car rentals and attraction tickets for the Mid-Autumn festival have jumped by double digits compared to the same period in 2019, the Securities Times reported, citing data from travel booking platform Feizhu.

Key stocks to watch include Trip.com Group Ltd., H World Group Ltd., BTG Hotels Group Co., Haidilao International Holding Ltd. and Air China Ltd.

Shopping

Consumer companies are expected to benefit from channel restocking for festivals in the fourth quarter, given an early Chinese New Year in 2025 and a lower base in the second half of the year, HSBC Holdings Plc. analyst Katharine Song wrote in a note.

Although market watchers anticipate the holidays could offer a short-term boost for baijiu distillers and beer brewers, sluggishness in liquor demand may continue amid subdued consumer confidence. Sales may also miss market estimates during the holiday promotion period, according to Cailian, citing an industry association.

Sportswear makers may also see “sequentially intensified” industry promotions during the two upcoming holidays through the nation’s Singles’ Day shopping event in November, according to Citigroup Inc.

Key stocks to watch include alcohol producers Kweichow Moutai Co., Budweiser Brewing Co. and China Resources Beer Holdings Co. Key retailers to watch also include China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp., Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd., Sa Sa International Holdings Ltd. and Li Ning Co.

Leisure

Leisure-related stocks may benefit from holidays as the so-called experience economy booms in China, with people spending more on services even as they remain thrifty and refrain from splurging on goods.

Box-office companies may also get a lift as a number of movies are scheduled for release during the National Day holiday.

Key stocks to watch include movie companies Maoyan Entertainment and Wanda Film Holding Co. Casino operators MGM China Holdings Ltd., Wynn Macau Ltd. and Sands China Ltd. are also in focus.

(Updates with shares in fifth and sixth paragraphs)

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