China could tow Philippine ship from disputed Sabina Shoal, but is it worth the backlash?

Beijing appears to be carefully weighing plans to tow a Philippine vessel it says is "illegally" deployed at a disputed atoll that has become a new flashpoint in the South China Sea.

However, observers warned that any miscalculation could trigger armed conflict that would invoke a mutual treaty drawing in the US.

Two Chinese navy tug boats - Nantuo 175 and 185 - were among the Chinese vessels surrounding the BRP Teresa Magbanua, a 2,600-tonne Philippine coastguard ship involved in collisions with Chinese vessels last Saturday, according to a photo posted by Philippine Coast Guard spokesman Jay Tarriela on social media platform X, formerly Twitter.

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While the photo is believed to have been taken before the collision, the presence of Chinese tug boats raised speculation about whether Beijing might try to drive the Philippine vessel out of Sabina Shoal - a disputed atoll known as Xianbin Jiao in China and Escoda Shoal in the Philippines.

China has repeatedly urged the Philippines to remove the Teresa Magbanua. Beijing worries Manila might establish a permanent presence at Sabina Shoal as it did on Second Thomas Shoal, another contested reef known as Renai Jiao in China and Ayungin Shoal in the Philippines.

In 1999, Manila grounded the BRP Sierra Madre, a World War II-era warship, on Second Thomas Shoal, turning it into a military outpost.

Hu Bo, director of South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI), a Beijing-based think tank, said towing the Teresa Magbanua was "one of the options".

"The ship at Sabina Shoal can of course be pulled away, but whether it should be towed or not depends on how the situation develops," Hu said. "The best way out is that the ship leaves on its own."

"But if the Philippines escalates its provocation, I don't think we can rule out further actions by China," he added.

Ray Powell, a former US Air Force official, said the presence of the two Chinese tugboats "may indicate a willingness by Beijing to attempt to push or tow" the Teresa Magbanua out of Sabina Shoal.

But he said any further action by Beijing should be considered carefully to avoid the risk of drawing in the US, which is obliged under a mutual defence treaty to help defend Manila in major conflicts, including in the South China Sea.

"A direct armed attack on the ship would certainly invoke the treaty, but China may calculate that they have already created a permission structure for lesser aggressions."

Chen Xiangmiao, an associate research fellow at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, a think tank in the southern Chinese province of Hainan, said it would not be easy for Beijing to remove the Philippine ship by force.

Risks of armed conflict would be high if Beijing forcibly towed the Teresa Magbanua, one of the largest and the most advanced Philippine coastguard ships, he said.

"It will be a headache to Beijing if there are any casualties," he said. "That's why China has not taken further actions - to avoid escalation in tensions."

Hu said if Beijing moved to tow the Philippine vessel, "frictions would definitely escalate, but it won't necessarily be an armed conflict".

The BRP Teresa Magbanua is seen surrounded by Chinese vessels near Sabina Shoal on August 31 in a photo released by the Philippine Coast Guard. Photo. Philippine Coast Guard alt=The BRP Teresa Magbanua is seen surrounded by Chinese vessels near Sabina Shoal on August 31 in a photo released by the Philippine Coast Guard. Photo. Philippine Coast Guard>

Sitting in the east of the Spratly Islands, or Nansha Islands in Chinese, Sabina Shoal is closer to the coast of Palawan, the nearest Philippine province, than Second Thomas Shoal. The atoll has been a meeting point for Philippine resupply missions to Second Thomas Shoal.

Tensions heated up earlier this year after Manila accused Beijing of attempting to reclaim land at Sabina Shoal. It sent the Teresa Magbanua to the area in April.

Confrontations escalated in July after Manila accused Beijing of trying to "intimidate" its forces, including by deploying its largest coastguard vessel, the 12,000-tonne CCG-5901, near Sabina Shoal. Beijing denied the accusation and said Manila was "vilifying" China and trying to "mislead the international community".

In August alone, the coastguards of the two countries engaged in multiple - and sometimes violent - maritime and air confrontations near Sabina Shoal.

Beijing has also repeatedly blocked resupply missions to the Teresa Magbanua - apparently in the hope that time would tip the scales in its favour as the Philippine ship is eventually forced to leave to replenish supplies.

Chen, in Hainan, said that without enough supplies and fuel, the Teresa Magbanua was unlikely to be able to sustain its presence at sea.

"Drones or helicopters are limited in capacity when being used to resupply such a big ship that has been away from port for a long time and needs repair."

Following last week's collision, the Philippine Coast Guard said the Teresa Magbanua had sustained damage, including a 90cm (35-inch) dent near its flight deck and a hull breach measuring 1.5 (4.9 feet) metres wide at the stern.

Powell noted that while Beijing has drawn parallels between Sabina Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal, where the Philippine warship was run aground 25 years ago, the situation probably reminded Manila of another South China Sea feature, Scarborough Shoal, which it lost control of in a 2012 stand-off with China.

"For the Philippines, the analogy is less about Second Thomas Shoal than about Scarborough Shoal," said Powell, who is now the director of SeaLight, a project at the Gordian Knot Centre for National Security Innovation at Stanford University, which monitors maritime activities in the South China Sea.

"Given the number of ships that China has flooded into Sabina Shoal, it has become clear to Manila that it needs to maintain a Philippine presence there or lose effective control of a maritime feature located just 70 nautical miles from its coastline," he said.

After losing control of the Scarborough Shoal, Manila took Beijing to an international tribunal in The Hague. In 2016, the tribunal backed Manila, rejecting Beijing's claims to the South China Sea - a ruling Beijing has dismissed.

Since last Saturday's collision, there have been renewed calls in the Philippines to accept a US offer to escort Manila's resupply missions to the disputed waters. Philippine military chief Romeo Brawner said earlier that the option would only be accepted if troops in the Second Thomas Shoal or Sabina Shoal were "on the verge of dying".

In an interview with a local radio station on Monday, Antonio Carpio, a retired associate justice in the Philippines, reiterated his call for the Philippine government to file another arbitration case against China.

"We bring it to the next level, not just a note verbale, not just a diplomatic protest, let's file a case," he said, according to Philippine news portal Inquirer.net.

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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