Yahoo Finance The Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) First-Quarter Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts
Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.4% to US$160 in the week after its latest first-quarter results. Chevron missed revenue estimates by 3.9%, coming in atUS$49b, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.97 beat expectations, coming in 4.0% ahead of analyst estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Chevron
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Chevron's 15 analysts is for revenues of US$199.2b in 2024. This reflects a credible 3.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 16% to US$12.73. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$203.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$13.20 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$183, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Chevron, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$206 and the most bearish at US$155 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Chevron's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 14% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 2.0% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Chevron is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Chevron analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Chevron that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
