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Is Centene’s 282% Share Price Increase Well Justified?

While Centene Corporation (NYSE:CNC) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn’t had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 14% in the last quarter. But in stark contrast, the returns over the last half decade have impressed. It’s fair to say most would be happy with 282% the gain in that time. Generally speaking the long term returns will give you a better idea of business quality than short periods can. The more important question is whether the stock is too cheap or too expensive today.

See our latest analysis for Centene

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, Centene achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 25% per year. So the EPS growth rate is rather close to the annualized share price gain of 31% per year. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn’t changed much over that time. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

NYSE:CNC Past and Future Earnings, March 4th 2019
NYSE:CNC Past and Future Earnings, March 4th 2019

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Centene’s earnings, revenue and cash flow.

A Different Perspective

It’s nice to see that Centene shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 20% over the last year. However, that falls short of the 31% TSR per annum it has made for shareholders, each year, over five years. Potential buyers might understandably feel they’ve missed the opportunity, but it’s always possible business is still firing on all cylinders. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.