It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Cenovus Energy (CVE). Shares have lost about 6.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Cenovus due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Cenovus Misses Q3 Earnings Estimates, Revenue Beat
Cenovus reported third-quarter earnings per share of 62 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of earnings of 78 cents. The bottom line significantly improved from the year-ago quarter’s earnings of 21 cents per share.
Total quarterly revenues of $17,471 million surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $10,412 million. The top line also increased from the year-ago quarter’s $12,701 million.
Lower-than-expected quarterly earnings can be attributed to higher transportation and blending expenses, and expenses for purchased products. The negatives were partially offset by higher contributions from the upstream segment.
The quarterly operating margin from the Oil Sands unit was C$2,220 million, improving from C$1,923 million reported a year ago.
In the September-end quarter, the company recorded daily oil sand production of 585 thousand barrels, down 2% year over year due to lower contribution from its Foster Creek operation.
The operating margin at the Conventional unit was C$290 million, up from C$191 million in the year-ago quarter. In the third quarter, the company recorded daily liquid production of 26.8 thousand barrels, down 14.9% year over year.
The Offshore segment generated an operating margin of C$339 million, up from C$328 million in the year-ago quarter. In the reported quarter, the company recorded daily offshore liquid production of 21.3 thousand barrels.
From the Canadian Manufacturing unit, the company reported an operating margin of C$249 million, up from C$130 million in the year-ago quarter. The company recorded Crude Oil processed volumes of 98.5 thousand barrels per day (MBbl/D).
The operating margin from the U.S. Manufacturing unit was C$244 million, up from C$122 million in the prior-year quarter. Crude oil processed volumes were 435 MBbl/D, signifying a decline from 445.8 MBbl/D in the year-ago quarter.
For the Retail unit, the company reported an operating loss of C$3 million, turning around from an operating income of C$16 million in the prior-year quarter.
Transportation and blending expenses in the reported quarter increased to C$2,684 million from C$1,966 million a year ago. Expenses for purchased products rose to C$10,012 million from C$6,691 million in the prior-year quarter.
Capital Investment & Balance Sheet
The company made a total capital investment of C$2,467 million in the quarter under review.
As of Sept 30, 2022, the Canadian energy player had cash and cash equivalents of C$3,494 million. Total long-term debt was C$8,774 million. Its total debt-to-capitalization was 24%.
For 2022, Cenovus reiterated its upstream production guidance of 780,000-810,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d). It expects daily oil sand production of 574-620 thousand barrels for the year.
The company expects a downstream throughput volume of 530,000-580,000 barrels per day for 2022.
Cenovus stated its upstream capital expenditure guidance of $2.1-$2.4 billion for the year.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in fresh estimates.
Currently, Cenovus has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision looks promising. Notably, Cenovus has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.
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