Yahoo Finance CapitaLand Investment Limited's (SGX:9CI) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 26% Below Its Share Price
Key Insights
Using the Dividend Discount Model, CapitaLand Investment fair value estimate is S$2.09
Current share price of S$2.81 suggests CapitaLand Investment is potentially 34% overvalued
The S$3.74 analyst price target for 9CI is 79% more than our estimate of fair value
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of CapitaLand Investment Limited (SGX:9CI) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
See our latest analysis for CapitaLand Investment
The Model
As CapitaLand Investment operates in the real estate sector, we need to calculate the intrinsic value slightly differently. In this approach dividends per share (DPS) are used, as free cash flow is difficult to estimate and often not reported by analysts. Unless a company pays out the majority of its FCF as a dividend, this method will typically underestimate the value of the stock. We use the Gordon Growth Model, which assumes dividend will grow into perpetuity at a rate that can be sustained. The dividend is expected to grow at an annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.1%. We then discount this figure to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.3%. Compared to the current share price of S$2.8, the company appears reasonably expensive at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate - Perpetual Growth Rate)
= S$0.1 / (8.3% – 2.1%)
= S$2.1
Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at CapitaLand Investment as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.340. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for CapitaLand Investment
Strength
No major strengths identified for 9CI.
Weakness
Earnings declined over the past year.
Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Real Estate market.
Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Singaporean market.
Threat
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
Dividends are not covered by earnings and cashflows.
Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Looking Ahead:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Why is the intrinsic value lower than the current share price? For CapitaLand Investment, we've compiled three further elements you should explore:
Risks: For example, we've discovered 4 warning signs for CapitaLand Investment (2 are concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
Future Earnings: How does 9CI's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SGX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
