Yahoo Finance Calix, Inc. (NYSE:CALX) Consensus Forecasts Have Become A Little Darker Since Its Latest Report
Shareholders might have noticed that Calix, Inc. (NYSE:CALX) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.1% to US$28.23 in the past week. It was an okay result overall, with revenues coming in at US$226m, roughly what the analysts had been expecting. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Calix
After the latest results, the consensus from Calix's eight analysts is for revenues of US$852.8m in 2024, which would reflect a definite 16% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Earnings are expected to tip over into lossmaking territory, with the analysts forecasting statutory losses of -US$0.34 per share in 2024. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$951.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.30 in 2024. There looks to have been a major change in sentiment regarding Calix's prospects following the latest results, with a real cut to revenues and the analysts now forecasting a loss instead of a profit.
The consensus price target fell 14% to US$39.55, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Calix at US$48.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$28.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 21% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 21% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.6% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Calix's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest low-light for us was that the forecasts for Calix dropped from profits to a loss next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Calix going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Calix has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
