Calculating The Fair Value Of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY)

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Occidental Petroleum is US$64.97 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• With US$68.34 share price, Occidental Petroleum appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value

• The US$69.29 analyst price target for OXY is 6.7% more than our estimate of fair value

How far off is Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Occidental Petroleum

Crunching The Numbers

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$4.21b	US$6.10b	US$6.28b	US$4.42b	US$4.42b	US$4.05b	US$3.84b	US$3.72b	US$3.67b	US$3.66b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x3	Analyst x4	Analyst x4	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ -8.42%	Est @ -5.21%	Est @ -2.96%	Est @ -1.38%	Est @ -0.28%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.4%	US$3.9k	US$5.2k	US$4.9k	US$3.2k	US$3.0k	US$2.5k	US$2.2k	US$2.0k	US$1.8k	US$1.6k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$30b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.4%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$3.7b× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (8.4%– 2.3%) = US$61b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$61b÷ ( 1 + 8.4%)¹⁰= US$27b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$58b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$68.3, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Occidental Petroleum as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.328. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Occidental Petroleum

Strength

• Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.

• Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.

Weakness

• Earnings declined over the past year.

• Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Oil and Gas market.

Opportunity

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.

• Good value based on P/E ratio compared to estimated Fair P/E ratio.

Threat

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Occidental Petroleum, we've put together three relevant aspects you should further examine:

1. Risks: You should be aware of the 2 warning signs for Occidental Petroleum we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.

2. Future Earnings: How does OXY's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.